Decadal predictions of wind, solar and compound power indicators to support the European renewable energy sector

Moreno-Montes, Sara; Delgado-Torres, Carlos; Olmo, Matías; Ghosh, Sushovan; Torralba, Verónica; Soret, Albert

doi:10.5194/esd-17-1435-2026

Articles | Volume 17, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1435-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1435-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 5

Research article

|

02 Oct 2026

Research article |

| 02 Oct 2026

Decadal predictions of wind, solar and compound power indicators to support the European renewable energy sector

Sara Moreno-Montes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Matías Olmo, Sushovan Ghosh, Verónica Torralba, and Albert Soret

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1435-2026-supplement

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245 EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4880

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4553

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4700

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical O. Boucher et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5195

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245 O. Boucher et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5264

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast O. Boucher et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5137

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast H. Pohlmann et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6490

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical J. Jungclaus et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6594

DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245 M. Schupfner et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4398

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Short summary

Wind and solar power depend on weather conditions that can vary over the next few years. This study assesses whether climate forecasts for the next three years can help anticipate renewable energy production across Europe. Solar energy is generally more predictable than wind, with skill varying by season and region. We also assess compound energy droughts, when low wind and solar resources occur simultaneously, showing where near-term climate information can support energy planning.