Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1299-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1299-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Research article
 | 
22 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 22 Sep 2026

Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions

Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Christophe Cassou

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Latest update: 22 Oct 2026
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Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here, we present a novel approach to reduce this uncertainty by combining information from both observations and decadal predictions to constrain climate projections. This new method can outperform decadal predictions and unconstrained ensemble temperature forecasts in some regions. This improved regional climate information could support more near-term targeted adaptation strategies.
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