Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1299-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1299-2026
Research article
 | 
22 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 22 Sep 2026

Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions

Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Christophe Cassou

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

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Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here, we present a novel approach to reduce this uncertainty by combining information from both observations and decadal predictions to constrain climate projections. This new method can outperform decadal predictions and unconstrained ensemble temperature forecasts in some regions. This improved regional climate information could support more near-term targeted adaptation strategies.
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