Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Research article
 | 
16 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 16 Jan 2026

A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation

Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin

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Short summary
Climate emulators allow for rapid projections without the computational costs associated with full-scale climate models. Here, we outline a framework to compare a variety of emulation techniques both theoretically and practically through a series of stress tests that expose common sources of emulator error. Our results help clarify which emulators are best suited for different tasks and show how future climate scenarios can be used to support emulator design.
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