Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 17 Dec 2025
| 17 Dec 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Paolo De Luca
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Carlos Delgado-Torres
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Zurich Insurance, Via Augusta 200, 08021, Barcelona
Margarida Samso Cabre
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Markus G. Donat
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
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Short summary
We investigate multi-year predictability of hot, dry and hot-dry compound events, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 decadal hindcast experiments, focusing on the forecast years 2–5. We find that hot-dry compound and hot extremes are skillfully predicted in many regions, but lower skill is found for dry extremes. The skill is largely due to long-term trends in response to external forcing, while added skill from initialisation is limited to a few regions.
We investigate multi-year predictability of hot, dry and hot-dry compound events, using the...
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