Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Research article
 | 
17 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 17 Dec 2025

Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes

Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus G. Donat

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Latest update: 24 Aug 2026
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Short summary
We investigate multi-year predictability of hot, dry and hot-dry compound events, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 decadal hindcast experiments, focusing on the forecast years 2–5. We find that hot-dry compound and hot extremes are skillfully predicted in many regions, but lower skill is found for dry extremes. The skill is largely due to long-term trends in response to external forcing, while added skill from initialisation is limited to a few regions.
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