Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
20 Nov 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 20 Nov 2025

Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system

Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark S. Williamson, and Peter Cox

Viewed

Total article views: 1,679 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
1,507 140 32 1,679 53 43 38
  • HTML: 1,507
  • PDF: 140
  • XML: 32
  • Total: 1,679
  • Supplement: 53
  • BibTeX: 43
  • EndNote: 38
Views and downloads (calculated since 18 Aug 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 18 Aug 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,679 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,658 with geography defined and 21 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 25 Nov 2025
Download
Chief editor
This study identifies a potential instability in the global carbon cycle driven by feedbacks between climate, weathering, and ocean chemistry, suggesting abrupt shifts under extreme perturbations. Although the conditions required are severe, the findings reveal that Earth’s carbon system may have multiple stable states, with implications for climate tipping points. The work offers a crucial theoretical framework for understanding past and future carbon cycle disruptions, making it highly relevant to geoscientific and climate research.
Read more
Short summary
An increase in CO2 in the atmosphere warms the climate through the greenhouse effect, but also leads to uptake of CO2 by the land and ocean. However, the warming is also expected to suppress carbon uptake. If this suppression were strong enough, it could overwhelm the uptake of carbon, leading to a runaway feedback loop causing severe global warming. We find it is possible that this runaway could be relevant in complex climate models and even at the end of the last ice age.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint