Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 10 Oct 2025
| 10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ada Gjermundsen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Andreas Born
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Jens Boldingh Debernard
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Heiko Goelzer
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Yan-Chun He
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Petra Margaretha Langebroek
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Aleksi Nummelin
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Dirk Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Øyvind Seland
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Trude Storelvmo
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Mats Bentsen
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Chuncheng Guo
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Andrea Rosendahl
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Dandan Tao
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Thomas Toniazzo
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stephen Outten
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Michael Schulz
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Related authors
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Philip J. Wallhead, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Trond Kristiansen, and Richard G. J. Bellerby
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6763–6805, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a novel method to combine ocean data from observations and models, and applied it to produce gridded estimates of nutrients, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity concentrations at latitudes >40° N and years 1980–2020. The new estimates showed improved accuracy and coverage relative to previous estimates, but highlighted remaining uncertainty in some poorly sampled regions. The work was largely motivated by a need for accurate input data for regional ocean models.
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin L. Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 6421–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet in 2100. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario and the implications of using a single type of numerical model for ice sheets or regional climate.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 6403–6419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to better simulate how Greenland’s ice sheet may change over thousands of years in response to climate change. Using a stand-alone ice sheet model, we adjust snowfall and melting patterns based on changes in the ice sheet’s shape. This approach avoids complex coupled models and enables faster testing of many future scenarios to understand the long-term stability of Greenland’s ice.
Jean Rabault, Trygve Halsne, Ana Carrasco, Anton Korosov, Joey Voermans, Patrik Bohlinger, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Malte Müller, Øyvind Breivik, Takehiko Nose, Gaute Hope, Fabrice Collard, Sylvain Herlédan, Tsubasa Kodaira, Nick Hughes, Qin Zhang, Kai Håkon Christensen, Alexander Babanin, Lars Willas Dreyer, Cyril Palerme, Lotfi Aouf, Konstantinos Christakos, Atle Jensen, Johannes Röhrs, Aleksey Marchenko, Graig Sutherland, Trygve Kvåle Løken, and Takuji Waseda
The Cryosphere, 19, 6229–6260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6229-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We observe strongly modulated waves-in-ice significant wave height using buoys deployed East of Svalbard. We show that these observations likely cannot be explained by wave-current interaction or tide-induced modulation alone. We also demonstrate a strong correlation between the waves height modulation, and the rate of sea ice convergence. Therefore, our data suggest that the rate of sea ice convergence and divergence may modulate wave in ice energy dissipation.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We run the MPI-ESM1.2-LR and NorESM2-LM climate models in CO2 emissions-driven mode to 2300 for three climate scenarios. For climate overshoot scenarios, there is a large residual warming in the 22nd century in NorESM2-LM, despite negative CO2 emissions, related to Southern Ocean heat release. In both models, while global mean surface temperature is largely reversible, other global and regional climate models exhibit hysteresis and irreversibility.
Heiko Goelzer, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, Stefan Hofer, Konstanze Haubner, Michele Petrini, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7853–7867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
On the backdrop of observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss over the last few decades, there is growing interest in the role of ice sheet changes in global climate projections. In this regard, we have coupled an Earth system model with an ice sheet model and have produced an initial set of climate projections including an interactive coupling with a dynamic Greenland ice sheet.
Ove W. Haugvaldstad, Dirk Olivié, Trude Storelvmo, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13199–13219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13199-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13199-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines what would happen if desert dust in the atmosphere doubled, motivated by dust sedimentation records showing a large increase in dust levels since industrialization began. Using climate model simulations, we assess how more dust affects Earth's energy balance and rainfall. We found that models disagree on whether more dust overall cools or warms the planet. Additionally, more dust tends to reduce rainfall because it absorbs radiation and encourages the formation of ice clouds.
Robert G. Bingham, Julien A. Bodart, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Ailsa Chung, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Johannes C. R. Sutter, Olaf Eisen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Joseph A. MacGregor, Neil Ross, Duncan A. Young, David W. Ashmore, Andreas Born, Winnie Chu, Xiangbin Cui, Reinhard Drews, Steven Franke, Vikram Goel, John W. Goodge, A. Clara J. Henry, Antoine Hermant, Benjamin H. Hills, Nicholas Holschuh, Michelle R. Koutnik, Gwendolyn J.-M. C. Leysinger Vieli, Emma J. MacKie, Elisa Mantelli, Carlos Martín, Felix S. L. Ng, Falk M. Oraschewski, Felipe Napoleoni, Frédéric Parrenin, Sergey V. Popov, Therese Rieckh, Rebecca Schlegel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Xueyuan Tang, Thomas O. Teisberg, Kate Winter, Shuai Yan, Harry Davis, Christine F. Dow, Tyler J. Fudge, Tom A. Jordan, Bernd Kulessa, Kenichi Matsuoka, Clara J. Nyqvist, Maryam Rahnemoonfar, Matthew R. Siegfried, Shivangini Singh, Vjeran Višnjević, Rodrigo Zamora, and Alexandra Zuhr
The Cryosphere, 19, 4611–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative working together on these archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica and how this is being used to reconstruct past and to predict future ice and climate behaviour.
Joshua Oldham-Dorrington, Camille Li, Stefan Sobolowski, and Robin Guillaume-Castel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4977, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
The future of heavy precipitation in Europe is uncertain, and current precipitation can be poorly represented in climate models. To understand model heavy precipitation better we break it into two steps: firstly, do weather patterns that favour precipitation occur? Secondly, does heavy precipitation occur under those weather patterns. By doing so, we are able to better understand model biases and forced changes which can make current climate models more useful and easier to improve.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Jenny Bjordal, Anthony A. Smith Jr., Henri Cornec, and Trude Storelvmo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4660, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research introduces NorESM2-DIAM, a new modelling tool that connects a climate model with an economic model to better understand how climate change affects economies. With the new model we can estimate both global and regional economic consequences – and shows that these impacts can vary a lot depending on where you are. The model is the first of its kind and a good starting point for future model development, making even better predictions possible in the future.
Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Christian Stepanek, Chris Brierley, David Schroeder, Masa Kageyama, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ed Blockley, Alex West, Danny Feltham, Jeff Ridley, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, Xiaoxu Shi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Sophia I. Macarewich, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Qiong Zhang, Allegra LeGrande, Weipeng Zheng, Dabang Jiang, Polina Morozova, Chuncheng Guo, Zhongshi Zhang, Nicholas Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Olivia Reeves, Matthew Pollock, and Anni Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic may have lost its summer sea ice 127,000 years ago during a naturally warm period in Earth’s past. Climate models can be tested by recreating those conditions, with similar sunlight and greenhouse gas levels. Analysing the large sea ice changes in these simulations helps us understand how the Arctic might respond in the near future and improves how we test and trust our climate models.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Jakob Simon Dörr, Carlo Jeffrey Mans, Marius Årthun, Kristofer Döös, Dafydd Gwyn Evans, and Yanchun He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4345, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic Ocean plays a key role in the global ocean circulation by producing dense waters that feed the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We use a high-resolution ocean simulation to investigate the pathways and mechanisms through which these dense waters are formed in the Arctic. Our results show that surface cooling in the Barents Sea dominates the dense water production, but that internal mixing plays a role at high densities.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting—a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Srinath Krishnan, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Lieven Clarisse, Bruno Franco, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Alexander Archibald, Hannah N. Bryant, Alex T. Chaudhri, David S. Stevenson, Didier Hauglustaine, Michael Prather, J. Christopher Kaiser, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Michael Schulz, Oliver Wild, Ye Wang, Thérèse Salameh, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Fabien Paulot, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Haley E. Plaas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3057, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect air quality and climate, but their behavior in the atmosphere is still uncertain. We launched a global research effort to compare how different models represent these compounds and to improve their accuracy. By analyzing model results alongside observations and satellite data, we aim to better understand the atmospheric composition of these compounds.
Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David D. Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10049–10074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is accurately representing the mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol, which lacks sufficient observational constraints. We found that most global models underestimate the mass fraction of fine-mode nitrate at the surface in all regions. Our study highlights the importance of gas–aerosol partitioning parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Rachael E. Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9031–9060, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used 7 climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and find that in a scenario with weak controls on air quality, the warming effects (over 2015 to 2050) of decreases in ozone-depleting substances and increases in air quality pollutants are approximately equal and would make ozone the second highest contributor to warming over this period. We find that for stratospheric ozone recovery, the standard measure of climate effects underestimates a more comprehensive measure.
Filip Severin von der Lippe, Tim Carlsen, Trude Storelvmo, and Robert Oscar David
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3711, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how clouds associated with Arctic marine cold air outbreaks (CAOs) respond to climate change. By utilizing machine learning methods and remote sensing data from the past 25 years, the study identifies trends indicating a shortening of the CAO season. This has implications for the Arctic energy balance, underscoring the importance of further investigating these clouds to understand the trajectory of future Arctic climate.
Forrest M. Hoffman, Birgit Hassler, Ranjini Swaminathan, Jared Lewis, Bouwe Andela, Nathaniel Collier, Dóra Hegedűs, Jiwoo Lee, Charlotte Pascoe, Mika Pflüger, Martina Stockhause, Paul Ullrich, Min Xu, Lisa Bock, Felicity Chun, Bettina K. Gier, Douglas I. Kelley, Axel Lauer, Julien Lenhardt, Manuel Schlund, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Katja Weigel, Ed Blockley, Rebecca Beadling, Romain Beucher, Demiso D. Dugassa, Valerio Lembo, Jianhua Lu, Swen Brands, Jerry Tjiputra, Elizaveta Malinina, Brian Mederios, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jeremy Walton, Philip Kershaw, André L. Marquez, Malcolm J. Roberts, Eleanor O’Rourke, Elisabeth Dingley, Briony Turner, Helene Hewitt, and John P. Dunne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2685, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As Earth system models become more complex, rapid and comprehensive evaluation through comparison with observational data is necessary. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require fast analysis. This paper describes a new Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) that was developed for the Assessment Fast Track that will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) to inform the community about the performance of models.
Damien Couespel, Xabier Davila, Nadine Goris, Emil Jeansson, Siv K. Lauvset, and Jerry Tjiputra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2566, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Remineralised carbon storage is projected to increase along the 21st century, but the magnitude of increase varies depending on the Earth system models. To constrain the projections, we explore the relation between remineralised carbon and circulation in the deep ocean. Comparing model simulations and observations, we show that models overestimate the sensitivity of remineralised carbon storage to circulation slowdown, suggesting an overestimation of the future remineralised carbon increase.
Haichao Guo, Wolfgang Koeve, Andreas Oschlies, Yan-Chun He, Tronje Peer Kemena, Lennart Gerke, and Iris Kriest
Ocean Sci., 21, 1167–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1167-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the effectiveness of the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution (IG-TTD) with respect to estimating the mean state and temporal changes of seawater age, defined as the duration since water last had contact with the atmosphere, within the tropical thermocline. Results suggest that the IG-TTD underestimates seawater age. Moreover, the IG-TTD constrained by a single tracer gives spurious trends in water age. Incorporating an additional tracer improves IG-TTD's accuracy for estimating temporal change of seawater age.
Sara M. Blichner, Theodore Khadir, Sini Talvinen, Paulo Artaxo, Liine Heikkinen, Harri Kokkola, Radovan Krejci, Muhammed Irfan, Twan van Noije, Tuukka Petäjä, Christopher Pöhlker, Øyvind Seland, Carl Svenhag, Antti Vartiainen, and Ilona Riipinen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2559, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks at how well climate models capture the impact of rain on particles that help form cloud droplets. Using data from three measurement stations and applying both a correlation analysis and a machine learning approach, we found that models often miss how new particles form after rain and struggle in cold environments. This matters because these particles influence cloud formation and climate.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Rachael E. Byrom, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5683–5693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Addressing the cause of model spread in CO2 effective radiative forcing (ERF) is important for reducing uncertainty in climate change. We investigate stratospheric O3 as a driver of this spread by altering its concentration by 50 % and analysing the impact on CO2 forcing. Our experiments show a significant effect on stratospheric temperature that impacts instantaneous radiative forcing, primarily due to the influence on longwave emission. However, the impact on ERF is minimal.
Sjur Barndon, Robert Law, Andreas Born, Thomas Chudley, and Stefanie Brechtelsbauer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1304, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By simulating a section of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet over a deep fjord, we aim to understand the behaviour of ice sheets over rough landscapes. For perpendicular flow, we find reduced speed within the fjord and reverse flow at its base. Comparing real and smoothed topography shows that low-resolution models fail to capture these effects. Our findings have implications for Greenland ice sheet models, as commonly used bedrock resolutions likely overlook the influence of similar rough landscapes.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Robert Law, Andreas Born, Philipp Voigt, Joseph A. MacGregor, and Claire Marie Guimond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.18779, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.18779, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Convection has been previously, yet contentiously, suggested for ice sheets, but never before comprehensively explored using numerical models. We use mantle dynamics code to test the hypothesis that convection gives rise to enigmatic plume-like features observed in radio-stratigraphy observations of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Our results provide very good agreement with field observations, but could imply that ice in northern Greenland is significantly softer than commonly thought.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 1205–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet significantly contributes to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities globally. To improve future sea-level projections, we simulated ice sheet behavior until 2100, initializing the model with observed geometry and using various climate models. Predictions indicate a sea-level rise of 32 to 228 mm by 2100, with climate model uncertainty being the main source of variability in projections.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Chloe A. Brashear, Tyler R. Jones, Valerie Morris, Bruce H. Vaughn, William H. G. Roberts, William B. Skorski, Abigail G. Hughes, Richard Nunn, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Kurt M. Cuffey, Bo M. Vinther, Todd Sowers, Christo Buizert, Vasileios Gkinis, Christian Holme, Mari F. Jensen, Sofia E. Kjellman, Petra M. Langebroek, Florian Mekhaldi, Kevin S. Rozmiarek, Jonathan W. Rheinlænder, Margit H. Simon, Giulia Sinnl, Silje Smith-Johnsen, and James W. C. White
Clim. Past, 21, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-529-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use a series of spectral techniques to quantify the strength of high-frequency climate variability in northeastern Greenland to 50 000 ka before present. Importantly, we find that variability consistently decreases hundreds of years prior to Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events. Model simulations suggest a change in North Atlantic sea ice behavior contributed to this pattern, thus providing new information on the conditions which preceded abrupt climate change during the Last Glacial Period.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
Franziska Hellmuth, Tim Carlsen, Anne Sophie Daloz, Robert Oscar David, Haochi Che, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares the occurrence of supercooled liquid-containing clouds (sLCCs) and their link to surface snowfall in CloudSat–CALIPSO, ERA5, and the CMIP6 models. Significant discrepancies were found, with ERA5 and CMIP6 consistently overestimating sLCC and snowfall frequency. This bias is likely due to cloud microphysics parameterization. This conclusion has implications for accurately representing cloud phase and snowfall in future climate projections.
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10 °C over 250 yrs is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Thi-Khanh-Dieu Hoang, Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Andreas Born, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 21, 27–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the simulation of surface mass balance (SMB) that influences the advance–retreat of ice sheets, we run a snow model, the BErgen Snow SImulator (BESSI), with transient climate forcing obtained from an Earth system model, iLOVECLIM, over Greenland and Antarctica during the Last Interglacial (LIG; 130–116 ka). Compared to the simple existing SMB scheme of iLOVECLIM, BESSI gives more details about SMB processes with higher physics constraints while maintaining a low computational cost.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 18, 4831–4844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4831-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland ice sheet largely depends on the climate state. The uncertainties associated with the year-to-year variability have only a marginal impact on our simulated surface mass budget; this increases our confidence in projections and reconstructions. Basing the simulations on proxies, e.g., temperature, results in overestimates of the surface mass balance, as climatologies lead to small amounts of snowfall every day. This can be reduced by including sub-monthly precipitation variability.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Shunya Koseki, Lander R. Crespo, Jerry Tjiputra, Filippa Fransner, Noel S. Keenlyside, and David Rivas
Biogeosciences, 21, 4149–4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4149-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4149-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how the physical biases of an Earth system model influence the marine biogeochemical processes in the tropical Atlantic. With four different configurations of the model, we have shown that the versions with better SST reproduction tend to better represent the primary production and air–sea CO2 flux in terms of climatology, seasonal cycle, and response to climate variability.
David M. Chandler and Petra M. Langebroek
Clim. Past, 20, 2055–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise and global climate change caused by ice melt in Antarctica represent a puzzle of feedbacks between the climate, ocean, and ice sheets over tens to thousands of years. Antarctic Ice Sheet melting is caused mainly by warm deep water from the Southern Ocean. Here, we analyse close relationships between deep water temperatures and global climate over the last 800 000 years. This knowledge can help us to better understand how climate and sea level are likely to change in the future.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Henk Eskes, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Melanie Ades, Mihai Alexe, Anna Carlin Benedictow, Yasmine Bennouna, Lewis Blake, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Richard Engelen, Quentin Errera, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Jan Griesfeller, Vincent Huijnen, Luka Ilić, Antje Inness, John Kapsomenakis, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Augustin Mortier, Mark Parrington, Isabelle Pison, Mikko Pitkänen, Samuel Remy, Andreas Richter, Anja Schoenhardt, Michael Schulz, Valerie Thouret, Thorsten Warneke, Christos Zerefos, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9475–9514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global analyses and forecasts of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere. On 27 June 2023 a major upgrade, Cy48R1, became operational. Comparisons with in situ, surface remote sensing, aircraft, and balloon and satellite observations show that the new CAMS system is a significant improvement. The results quantify the skill of CAMS to forecast impactful events, such as wildfires, dust storms and air pollution peaks.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Britta Schäfer, Robert Oscar David, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Julie Thérèse Pasquier, Georgia Sotiropoulou, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7179–7202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mixed-phase clouds, i.e., clouds consisting of ice and supercooled water, are very common in the Arctic. However, how these clouds form is often not correctly represented in standard weather models. We show that both ice crystal concentrations in the cloud and precipitation from the cloud can be improved in the model when aerosol concentrations are prescribed from observations and when more processes for ice multiplication, i.e., the production of new ice particles from existing ice, are added.
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic bromoform, produced by algae, is an important precursor of atmospheric bromine, highlighting the importance of implementing these emissions in climate models. The simulated mean oceanic concentrations align well with observations, while the mean atmospheric values are lower than the observed ones. Modelled annual mean emissions mostly occur from the sea to the air and are driven by oceanic concentrations, sea surface temperature, and wind speed, which depend on season and location.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Gustav Jungdal-Olesen, Jane Lund Andersen, Andreas Born, and Vivi Kathrine Pedersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1517–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how the shape of the land and underwater features in Scandinavia affected the former Scandinavian ice sheet over time. Using a computer model, we simulate how the ice sheet evolved during different stages of landscape development. We discovered that early glaciations were limited in size by underwater landforms, but as these changed, the ice sheet expanded more rapidly. Our findings highlight the importance of considering landscape changes when studying ice-sheet history.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Erik Askov Mousing, Jerry Tjiputra, and Annette Samuelsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6875–6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an along BGC-Argo track 1D modelling framework. The model physics is constrained by the BGC-Argo temperature and salinity profiles to reduce the uncertainties related to mixed layer dynamics, allowing the evaluation of the biogeochemical formulation and parameterization. We objectively analyse the model with BGC-Argo and satellite data and improve the model biogeochemical dynamics. We present the framework, example cases and routines for model improvement and implementations.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Casey J. Wall, Trude Storelvmo, and Anna Possner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13125–13141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Interactions between aerosol pollution and liquid clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. We use global satellite observations to decompose the forcing into components from changes in cloud-droplet number concentration, cloud water content, and cloud amount. Our results reduce uncertainty in these forcing components and clarify their relative importance.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Johannes Röhrs, Yvonne Gusdal, Edel S. U. Rikardsen, Marina Durán Moro, Jostein Brændshøi, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Sindre Fritzner, Keguang Wang, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Martina Idžanović, Thomas Lavergne, Jens Boldingh Debernard, and Kai H. Christensen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5401–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A model to predict ocean currents, temperature, and sea ice is presented, covering the Barents Sea and northern Norway. To quantify forecast uncertainties, the model calculates ensemble forecasts with 24 realizations of ocean and ice conditions. Observations from satellites, buoys, and ships are ingested by the model. The model forecasts are compared with observations, and we show that the ocean model has skill in predicting sea surface temperatures.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Astrid Fremme, Paul J. Hezel, Øyvind Seland, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 449–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric moisture transport into eastern China for past, present, and future climate. Hence, we use different climate and weather prediction model data with a moisture source identification method. We find that while the moisture to first order originates mostly from similar regions, smaller changes consistently point to differences in the recycling of precipitation over land between different climates. Some differences are larger between models than between different climates.
Qi Shu, Qiang Wang, Chuncheng Guo, Zhenya Song, Shizhu Wang, Yan He, and Fangli Qiao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2539–2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean models are often used for scientific studies on the Arctic Ocean. Here the Arctic Ocean simulations by state-of-the-art global ocean–sea-ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) were evaluated. The simulations on Arctic Ocean hydrography, freshwater content, stratification, sea surface height, and gateway transports were assessed and the common biases were detected. The simulations forced by different atmospheric forcing were also evaluated.
Claire Waelbroeck, Jerry Tjiputra, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Eystein Jansen, Natalia Vázquez Riveiros, Samuel Toucanne, Frédérique Eynaud, Linda Rossignol, Fabien Dewilde, Elodie Marchès, Susana Lebreiro, and Silvia Nave
Clim. Past, 19, 901–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The precise geometry and extent of Atlantic circulation changes that accompanied rapid climate changes of the last glacial period are still unknown. Here, we combine carbon isotopic records from 18 Atlantic sediment cores with numerical simulations and decompose the carbon isotopic change across a cold-to-warm transition into remineralization and circulation components. Our results show that the replacement of southern-sourced by northern-sourced water plays a dominant role below ~ 3000 m depth.
Nadine Goris, Klaus Johannsen, and Jerry Tjiputra
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2095–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections of a high-CO2 future are highly uncertain. A new study provides a novel approach to identifying key regions that dynamically explain the model uncertainty. To yield an accurate estimate of the future North Atlantic carbon uptake, we find that a correct simulation of the upper- and interior-ocean volume transport at 25–30° N is key. However, results indicate that models rarely perform well for both indicators and point towards inconsistencies within the model ensemble.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Peter Kuma, Frida A.-M. Bender, Alex Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, and Øyvind Seland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 523–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a machine learning method for determining cloud types in climate model output and satellite observations based on ground observations of cloud genera. We analyse cloud type biases and changes with temperature in climate models and show that the bias is anticorrelated with climate sensitivity. Models simulating decreasing stratiform and increasing cumuliform clouds with increased CO2 concentration tend to have higher climate sensitivity than models simulating the opposite tendencies.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Shuang Gao, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Ingo Bethke, Jens Hartmann, Emilio Mayorga, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 20, 93–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Ville Leinonen, Harri Kokkola, Taina Yli-Juuti, Tero Mielonen, Thomas Kühn, Tuomo Nieminen, Simo Heikkinen, Tuuli Miinalainen, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Stefano Decesari, Markus Fiebig, Tareq Hussein, Niku Kivekäs, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Ari Leskinen, Andreas Massling, Nikos Mihalopoulos, Jane P. Mulcahy, Steffen M. Noe, Twan van Noije, Fiona M. O'Connor, Colin O'Dowd, Dirk Olivie, Jakob B. Pernov, Tuukka Petäjä, Øyvind Seland, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Henrik Skov, Erik Swietlicki, Thomas Tuch, Alfred Wiedensohler, Annele Virtanen, and Santtu Mikkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12873–12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five different earth system models. We investigated aerosol modes (nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation) separately and were able to show the differences between measured and modeled trends and especially their seasonal patterns. The differences in model results are likely due to complex effects of several processes instead of certain specific model features.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Petri Räisänen, Joonas Merikanto, Risto Makkonen, Mikko Savolahti, Alf Kirkevåg, Maria Sand, Øyvind Seland, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11579–11602, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A climate model is used to evaluate how the radiative forcing (RF) associated with black carbon (BC) emissions depends on the latitude, longitude, and seasonality of emissions. It is found that both the direct RF (BC absorption of solar radiation in air) and snow RF (BC absorption in snow/ice) depend strongly on the emission region and season. The results suggest that, for a given mass of BC emitted, climatic impacts are likely to be largest for high-latitude emissions due to the large snow RF.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Britta Schäfer, Tim Carlsen, Ingrid Hanssen, Michael Gausa, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9537–9551, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud properties are important for the surface radiation budget. This study presents cold-cloud observations based on lidar measurements from the Norwegian Arctic between 2011 and 2017. Using statistical assessments and case studies, we give an overview of the macro- and microphysical properties of these clouds and demonstrate the capabilities of long-term cloud observations in the Norwegian Arctic from the ground-based lidar at Andenes.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Basile de Fleurian, Richard Davy, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 16, 2265–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As temperature increases, more snow and ice melt at the surface of ice sheets. Here we use an ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology model with simplified geometry and climate forcing to study the impact of variations in meltwater on ice dynamics. We focus on the variations in length and intensity of the melt season. Our results show that a longer melt season leads to faster glaciers, but a more intense melt season reduces glaciers' seasonal velocities, albeit leading to higher peak velocities.
Pedro Duarte, Jostein Brændshøi, Dmitry Shcherbin, Pauline Barras, Jon Albretsen, Yvonne Gusdal, Nicholas Szapiro, Andreas Martinsen, Annette Samuelsen, Keguang Wang, and Jens Boldingh Debernard
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4373–4392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice models are often implemented for very large domains beyond the regions of sea ice formation, such as the whole Arctic or all of Antarctica. In this study, we implement changes in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, allowing it to be implemented for relatively small regions within the Arctic or Antarctica and yet considering the presence and influence of sea ice outside the represented areas. Such regional implementations are important when spatially detailed results are required.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Filippa Fransner, Friederike Fröb, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Siv K. Lauvset, Ingunn Skjelvan, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, Melissa Chierici, Elizabeth Jones, Agneta Fransson, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Truls Johannessen, and Are Olsen
Biogeosciences, 19, 979–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidification, a direct consequence of the CO2 release by human activities, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this study, we conduct a detailed investigation of the acidification of the Nordic Seas, from 1850 to 2100, by using a large set of samples taken during research cruises together with numerical model simulations. We estimate the effects of changes in different environmental factors on the rate of acidification and its potential effects on cold-water corals.
Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Madlen Kimmritz, Filippa Fransner, Annette Samuelsen, Helene Langehaug, Lea Svendsen, Ping-Gin Chiu, Leilane Passos, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Alok Gupta, Jerry Tjiputra, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Julie Solsvik Vågane, Yuanchao Fan, and Tor Eldevik
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7073–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It adds data assimilation capability to the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) and has contributed output to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We describe the system and evaluate its baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Sorin Nicolae Vâjâiac, Andreea Calcan, Robert Oscar David, Denisa-Elena Moacă, Gabriela Iorga, Trude Storelvmo, Viorel Vulturescu, and Valeriu Filip
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6777–6794, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Warm clouds (with liquid droplets) play an important role in modulating the amount of incoming solar radiation to Earth’s surface and thus the climate. The most efficient way to study them is by in situ optical measurements. This paper proposes a new methodology for providing more detailed and reliable structural analyses of warm clouds through post-flight processing of collected data. The impact fine aerosol incorporation in water droplets might have on such measurements is also discussed.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn H. Samset, Timothy Andrews, Dirk Olivié, Toshihiko Takemura, and Xuhui Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13797–13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies showed that black carbon (BC) could warm the surface with decreased incoming radiation. With climate models, we found that the surface energy redistribution plays a more crucial role in surface temperature compared with other forcing agents. Though BC could reduce the surface heating, the energy dissipates less efficiently, which is manifested by reduced convective and evaporative cooling, thereby warming the surface.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Erica Madonna, David S. Battisti, Camille Li, and Rachel H. White
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 777–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of precipitation over Europe varies substantially from year to year, with impacts on crop yields and energy production. In this study, we show that it is possible to infer much of the winter precipitation and temperature signal over Europe by knowing only the frequency of occurrence of certain atmospheric circulation patterns. The results highlight the importance of (daily) weather for understanding and interpreting seasonal signals.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 15, 2917–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and the energy balance model of the Greenland ice sheet for the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day climate. The results show that the model sensitivity changes with climate. While for present-day simulations inclusions of sublimation and hoar formation are of minor importance, they cannot be neglected during the LGM. To simulate the surface mass balance over long timescales, a water vapor scheme is necessary.
Nick Schutgens, Oleg Dubovik, Otto Hasekamp, Omar Torres, Hiren Jethva, Peter J. T. Leonard, Pavel Litvinov, Jens Redemann, Yohei Shinozuka, Gerrit de Leeuw, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Michael Schulz, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6895–6917, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6895-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6895-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorptive aerosol has a potentially large impact on climate change. We evaluate and intercompare four global satellite datasets of absorptive aerosol optical depth (AAOD) and single-scattering albedo (SSA). We show that these datasets show reasonable correlations with the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) reference, although significant biases remain. In a follow-up paper we show that these observations nevertheless can be used for model evaluation.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Hanna Lee, Helene Muri, Altug Ekici, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how three different geoengineering methods using aerosol affect land ecosystem carbon storage. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a large role in vegetation carbon uptake and storage, but our results show that increased levels of CO2 also play a considerable role. We show that there are unforeseen regional consequences under geoengineering applications, and these consequences should be taken into account in future climate policies before implementing them.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Kine Onsum Moseid, Michael Schulz, Trude Storelvmo, Ingeborg Rian Julsrud, Dirk Olivié, Pierre Nabat, Martin Wild, Jason N. S. Cole, Toshihiko Takemura, Naga Oshima, Susanne E. Bauer, and Guillaume Gastineau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 16023–16040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare solar radiation at the surface from observations and Earth system models from 1961 to 2014. We find that the models do not reproduce the so-called
global dimmingas found in observations. Only model experiments with anthropogenic aerosol emissions display any dimming at all. The discrepancies between observations and models are largest in China, which we suggest is in part due to erroneous aerosol precursor emission inventories in the emission dataset used for CMIP6.
Cited articles
Arrhenius, S.: XXXI. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground, The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 41, 237–276, https://doi.org/10.1080/14786449608620846, 1896. a
Bekryaev, R. V., Polyakov, I. V., and Alexeev, V. A.: Role of Polar Amplification in Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Variations and Modern Arctic Warming, J. Climate, 23, 3888–3906, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3297.1, 2010. a
Bentsen, M., Olivié, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8040, 2019a. a, b
Bentsen, M., Olivié, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8321, 2019b. a, b
Bentsen, M., Olivié, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp370, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8270, 2019c. a
Bentsen, M., Olivié, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8255, 2019d. a
Bentsen, M., Olivié, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp126, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8250, 2019e. a
Bitz, C. M. and Roe, G. H.: A Mechanism for the High Rate of Sea Ice Thinning in the Arctic Ocean, J. Climate, 17, 3623–3632, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3623:AMFTHR>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Boeke, R. and Taylor, P.: Seasonal energy exchange in sea ice retreat regions contributes to differences in projected Arctic warming, Nat. Commun., 9, 5017, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07061-9, 2018. a, b, c, d
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Tjiputra, J. F.: Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S, Nat. Commun., 13, 340, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5, 2022. a, b
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1, 2012. a, b
Bretones, A., Nisancioglu, K. H., Jensen, M. F., Brakstad, A., and Yang, S.: Transient Increase in Arctic Deep-Water Formation and Ocean Circulation under Sea Ice Retreat, J. Climate, 35, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0152.1, 2022. a
Cai, Z., You, Q., Screen, J. A., Chen, H. W., Zhang, R., Zuo, Z., Chen, D., Cohen, J., Kang, S., and Zhang, R.: Lessened projections of Arctic warming and wetting after correcting for model errors in global warming and sea ice cover, Science Advances, 11, eadr6413, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adr6413, 2025. a, b
Calonne, N., Flin, F., Morin, S., Lesaffre, B., du Roscoat, S. R., and Geindreau, C.: Numerical and experimental investigations of the effective thermal conductivity of snow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049234, 2011. a, b, c
Cavalieri, D. J. and Parkinson, C. L.: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010, The Cryosphere, 6, 881–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-881-2012, 2012. a, b
Cesana, G., Waliser, D. E., Jiang, X., and Li, J.-L. F.: Multimodel evaluation of cloud phase transition using satellite and reanalysis data, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 7871–7892, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022932, 2015. a, b
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J., Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W., Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G., Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M., Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W., Maslowski, W., Peings, Y., Pfeiffer, K., Rigor, I., Semmler, T., Stroeve, J., Taylor, P. C., Vavrus, S., Vihma, T., Wang, S., Wendischa, M., Wu, Y., and Yoon, J.: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 20–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y, 2020. a
Collins, W. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Schulz, M., Boucher, O., Eyring, V., Hegglin, M. I., Maycock, A., Myhre, G., Prather, M., Shindell, D., and Smith, S. J.: AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a, b
Davy, R. and Outten, S.: The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5, J. Climate, 33, 8047–8068, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0990.1, 2020. a
Debernard, J. B.: NorESM2-MM hist-snow (NHIST_hist_snow_KeyClim): raw model output, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00033, 2025a. a
Debernard, J. B.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-snow (NSSP585_snow_KeyClim): raw model output, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00034, 2025b. a
Debernard, J. B. and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM hist-snow: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00055, 2025a. a
Debernard, J. B. and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-snow: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00056, 2025b. a
Douville, H.: Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification, Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 283, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5, 2023. a
Eden, C. and Greatbatch, R.: Towards a mesoscale eddy closure, Ocean Model., 20, 223–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.09.002, 2008. a
Emmons, L. K., Schwantes, R. H., Orlando, J. J., Tyndall, G., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Marsh, D., Mills, M. J., Tilmes, S., Bardeen, C., Buchholz, R. R., Conley, A., Gettelman, A., Garcia, R., Simpson, I., Blake, D. R., Meinardi, S., and Pétron, G.: The Chemistry Mechanism in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001882, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001882, 2020. a
EUMETSAT: OSI SAF Global sea ice concentration interim climate data record, v3.0, OSI-430-a, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [data set], https://doi.org/10.15770/EUM_SAF_OSI_0014, 2022a. a
EUMETSAT: OSI SAF Global sea ice concentration climate data record 1978-2020, v3.0, OSI-450-a, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [data set], https://doi.org/10.15770/EUM_SAF_OSI_0013, 2022b. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Feldl, N., Po-Chedley, S., Singh, H. K. A., Hay, S., and Kushner, P. J. A.: Sea ice and atmospheric circulation shape the high-latitude lapse rate feedback, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00146-7, 2020. a
Ferrari, R. and Nikurashin, M.: Suppression of Eddy Diffusivity across Jets in the Southern Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 1501–1519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4278.1, 2010. a
Fichefet, T., Tartinville, B., and Goosse, H.: Sensitivity of the Antarctic sea ice to the thermal conductivity of snow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 401–404, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL002397, 2000. a
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., , and Zhang, H.: The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021. a
Gent, P. R. and McWilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Gettelman, A., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Smith, A. K., Marsh, D. R., Tilmes, S., Vitt, F., Bardeen, C. G., McInerny, J., Liu, H.-L., Solomon, S. C., Polvani, L. M., Emmons, L. K., Lamarque, J.-F., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. S., Bacmeister, J. T., Phillips, A. S., Neale, R. B., Simpson, I. R., DuVivier, A. K., Hodzic, A., and Randel, W. J.: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 12380–12403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030943, 2019. a, b
Gjermundsen, A., Nummelin, A., Olivié, D., Bentsen, M., Seland, Ø., and Schulz, M.: Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming, Nat. Geosci., 14, 724–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00825-x, 2021. a
Goelzer, H.: NSSP585frc2G_f09_tn14_gl4_SMB1_celo, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00079, 2024a. a
Goelzer, H.: NHISTfrc2G_f09_tn14_gl4_SMB1_celo, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00080, 2024b. a
Goelzer, H.: NSSP585frc2extG_f09_tn14_gl4_SMB1_celo, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00081, 2024c. a
Goelzer, H. and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM hist-iceSheet(3): CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00052, 2025a. a
Goelzer, H. and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-iceSheet(3): CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00053, 2025b. a
Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., and Mouchet, A.: Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1005–1018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0885-0, 2011. a
Goelzer, H., Langebroek, P. M., Born, A., Hofer, S., Haubner, K., Petrini, M., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., and Thayer-Calder, K.: Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, 2025. a, b, c
Graff, L. S., Iversen, T., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Kirkevåg, A., Li, C., and Olivié, D. J. L.: Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 569–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, 2019. a
Hassan, T., Allen, R. J., Liu, W., and Randles, C. A.: Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the associated mechanisms in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, 2021. a
Haubner, K., Goelzer, H., and Born, A.: Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, 2025. a, b
He, C., Clement, A. C., Cane, M. A., Murphy, L. N., Klavans, J. M., and Fenske, T. M.: A North Atlantic Warming Hole Without Ocean Circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100420, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100420, 2022. a
He, Y. and Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center: KeyCLIM, WP6 eddy exp, historical, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00052, 2024a. a
He, Y. and Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center: KeyCLIM, WP6 eddy exp, histeddy2, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00054, 2024b. a
He, Y. and Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center: KeyCLIM, WP6 eddy exp, SSP585, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2024.00051, 2024c. a
He, Y., Nummelin, A., and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM hist-eddy: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00045, 2025a. a
He, Y., Nummelin, A., and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-eddy: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00043, 2025b. a
Heuzé, C., Zanowski, H., Karam, S., and Muilwijk, M.: The Deep Arctic Ocean and Fram Strait in CMIP6 Models, J. Climate, 36, 2551–2584, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0194.1, 2023. a
Hofer, S., Hahn, L. C., Shaw, J. K., McGraw, Z. S., Bruno, O., Hellmuth, F., Pietschnig, M., Mostue, I. A., David, R. O., Carlsen, T., and Storelvmo, T.: Realistic representation of mixed-phase clouds increases future climate warming, Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 390, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01524-2, 2024. a, b, c, d
Holland, M. M., Clemens-Sewall, D., Landrum, L., Light, B., Perovich, D., Polashenski, C., Smith, M., and Webster, M.: The influence of snow on sea ice as assessed from simulations of CESM2, The Cryosphere, 15, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, 2021. a
Hoose, C., Kristjansson, J. E., Chen, J.-P., and Hazra, A.: A Classical-Theory-Based Parameterization of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation by Mineral Dust, Soot, and Biological Particles in a Global Climate Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3425.1, 2010. a
Hunke, E. C., Lipscomb, W. H., Turner, A. K., Jeffery, N., and Elliott, S.: CICE: the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model Documentation and Software User’s Manual Version 5.1, Tech. Rep. LA-CC-06-012, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, https://csdms.colorado.edu/w/images/CICE_documentation_and_software_user's_manual.pdf (last access: 18 September 2025), 2015. a
Keil, P., Mauritsen, T., Jungclaus, J., Hedemann, C., Olonscheck, D., and Ghosh, R.: Multiple drivers of the North Atlantic warming hole, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 1758–6798, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0819-8, 2020. a
Koenigk, T., Fuentes-Franco, R., Meccia, V. L., Gutjahr, O., Jackson, L. C., New, A. L., Ortega, P., Roberts, C. D., Roberts, M. J., Arsouze, T., Iovino, D., Moine, M.-P., and Sein, D. V.: Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models, Clim. Dynam., 57, 1895–1918, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05785-x, 2021. a
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Oleson, K. W., Swenson, S. C., Bonan, G., Collier, N., Ghimire, B., van Kampenhout, L., Kennedy, D., Kluzek, E., Lawrence, P. J., Li, F., Li, H., Lombardozzi, D., Riley, W. J., Sacks, W. J., Shi, M., Vertenstein, M., Wieder, W. R., Xu, C., Ali, A. A., Badger, A. M., Bisht, G., van den Broeke, M., Brunke, M. A., Burns, S. P., Buzan, J., Clark, M., Craig, A., Dahlin, K., Drewniak, B., Fisher, J. B., Flanner, M., Fox, A. M., Gentine, P., Hoffman, F., Keppel-Aleks, G., Knox, R., Kumar, S., Lenaerts, J., Leung, L. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lu, Y., Pandey, A., Pelletier, J. D., Perket, J., Randerson, J. T., Ricciuto, D. M., Sanderson, B. M., Slater, A., Subin, Z. M., Tang, J., Thomas, R. Q., Val Martin, M., and Zeng, X.: The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583, 2019. a
Lecomte, O., Fichefet, T., Vancoppenolle, M., Domine, F., Massonnet, F., Mathiot, P., Morin, S., and Barriat, P. Y.: On the formulation of snow thermal conductivity in large-scale sea ice models, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 542–557, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20039, 2013. a
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 553–672, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021. a
Li, X., Wang, Q., Danilov, S., Koldunov, N., Liu, C., Müller, V., Sidorenko, D., and Jung, T.: Eddy activity in the Arctic Ocean projected to surge in a warming world, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 156–162, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01908-w, 2024. a
Lipscomb, W. H., Fyke, J. G., Vizcaíno, M., Sacks, W. J., Wolfe, J., Vertenstein, M., Craig, A., Kluzek, E., and Lawrence, D. M.: Implementation and Initial Evaluation of the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model in the Community Earth System Model, J. Climate, 26, 7352–7371, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00557.1, 2013. a
Lipscomb, W. H., Price, S. F., Hoffman, M. J., Leguy, G. R., Bennett, A. R., Bradley, S. L., Evans, K. J., Fyke, J. G., Kennedy, J. H., Perego, M., Ranken, D. M., Sacks, W. J., Salinger, A. G., Vargo, L. J., and Worley, P. H.: Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019. a
Liu, H., Koren, I., Altaratz, O., and Chekroun, M. D.: Opposing trends of cloud coverage over land and ocean under global warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6559–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6559-2023, 2023. a
Lu, J. and Cai, M.: A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models, Clim. Dynam., 32, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0425-3, 2009. a, b
Macfarlane, A. R., Löwe, H., Gimenes, L., Wagner, D. N., Dadic, R., Ottersberg, R., Hämmerle, S., and Schneebeli, M.: Temporospatial variability of snow's thermal conductivity on Arctic sea ice, The Cryosphere, 17, 5417–5434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5417-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
Manucharyan, G. E. and Thompson, A. F.: Heavy footprints of upper-ocean eddies on weakened Arctic sea ice in marginal ice zones, Nat. Commun., 13, 2047, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29663-0, 2022. a
Marzocchi, A., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Holliday, N. P., Cunningham, S. A., Blaker, A. T., and Coward, A. C.: The North Atlantic subpolar circulation in an eddy-resolving global ocean model, J. Marine Syst., 142, 126–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.10.007, 2015. a
McGraw, Z., Storelvmo, T., Polvani, L. M., Hofer, S., Shaw, J. K., and Gettelman, A.: On the Links Between Ice Nucleation, Cloud Phase, and Climate Sensitivity in CESM2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105053, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105053, 2023. a
Merkouriadi, I., Gallet, J.-C., Graham, R. M., Liston, G. E., Polashenski, C., Rösel, A., and Gerland, S.: Winter snow conditions on Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 10837–10854, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026753, 2017. a
Moreno-Chamarro, E., Caron, L.-P., Ortega, P., Loosveldt Tomas, S., and Roberts, M. J.: Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation?, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 054063, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a, 2021. a
Morrison, H., de Boer, G., Feingold, G., Harrington, J., Shupe, M. D., and Sulia, K.: Resilience of persistent Arctic mixed-phase clouds, Nat. Geosci., 5, 11–17, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1332, 2012. a
Muilwijk, M., Nummelin, A., Heuzé, C., Polyakov, I. V., Zanowski, H., and Smedsrud, L. H.: Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification, J. Climate, 36, 1727–1748, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0349.1, 2023. a
Muntjewerf, L., Sellevold, R., Vizcaino, M., Ernani da Silva, C., Petrini, M., Thayer-Calder, K., Scherrenberg, M. D. W., Bradley, S. L., Katsman, C. A., Fyke, J., Lipscomb, W. H., Lofverstrom, M., and Sacks, W. J.: Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1-CISM2.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002031, 2020. a, b
Muntjewerf, L., Sacks, W. J., Lofverstrom, M., Fyke, J., Lipscomb, W. H., Ernani da Silva, C., Vizcaino, M., Thayer-Calder, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., and Sellevold, R.: Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community Earth System Model v2 – Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2-CISM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002356, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002356, 2021. a
Myksvoll, M. S., Britt Sandø, A., Tjiputra, J., Samuelsen, A., Çağlar Yumruktepe, V., Li, C., Mousing, E. A., Bettencourt, J. P., and Ottersen, G.: Key physical processes and their model representation for projecting climate impacts on subarctic Atlantic net primary production: A synthesis, Prog. Oceanogr., 217, 103084, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103084, 2023. a
Notz, D. and Community, S.: Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749, 2020. a
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016. a
Oldenburg, D., Kwon, Y.-O., Frankignoul, C., Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S., and Kim, W. M.: The Respective Roles of Ocean Heat Transport and Surface Heat Fluxes in Driving Arctic Ocean Warming and Sea Ice Decline, J. Climate, 37, 1431–1448, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0399.1, 2024. a
Olivié, D. J. L.: KeyCLIM, WP6 ozone exp, historical, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00020, 2025a. a
Olivié, D. J. L.: KeyCLIM, WP6 ozone exp, SSP585, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00031, 2025b. a
Olivié, D. J. L. and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM hist-ozone: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00048, 2025a. a
Olivié, D. J. L. and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-ozone: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00049, 2025b. a
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e
Orbe, C., Rind, D., Waugh, D. W., Jonas, J., Zhang, X., Chiodo, G., Nazarenko, L., and Schmidt, G. A.: Coupled stratospheric ozone and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation feedbacks on the Northern hemisphere midlatitude jet response to 4xCO2, J. Climate, 37, 2897–2017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0119.1, 2024. a
Pithan, F. and Mauritsen, T.: Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models, Nat. Geosci., 7, 181–184, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2071, 2014. a, b
Previdi, M., Smith, K. L., and Polvani, L. M.: Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 093003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1c29, 2021. a, b
Redi, M. H.: Oceanic Isopycnal Mixing by Coordinate Rotation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 1154–1158, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1982)012<1154:OIMBCR>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a
Rhines, P. B.: The dynamics of unsteady currents, The Sea, 6, 189–318, 1977. a
Schweiger, A., Lindsay, R., Zhang, J., Steele, M., and Stern, H.: Uncertainty in modeled arctic sea ice volume, J. Geophys. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007084, 2011. a
Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Goris, N., Six, K. D., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Heinze, C., and Ilyina, T.: Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model, Biogeosciences, 14, 3633–3648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, 2017. a
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334–1337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051, 2010. a
Seland, Ø.: KeyCLIM, cloudice historical, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00016, 2025a. a
Seland, Ø.: KeyClim, piaeroxid,historical, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00015, 2025b. a
Seland, Ø.: KeyCLIM, cloudice SSP585, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00013, 2025c. a
Seland, Ø.: KeyClim, piaeroxid, SSP585, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00012, 2025d. a
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Gao, S., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moree, A., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NorESM2 source code as used for CMIP6 simulations (includes additional experimental setups, extended model documentation, automated inputdata download, restructuring of BLOM/iHAMOCC input data), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3905091, 2020a. a
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y.-C., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020b. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Seland, O., Olivié, D., and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM hist-piAerOxid: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00039, 2025a. a
Seland, O., Olivié, D., and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-piAerOxid: CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00040, 2025b. a
Seland, Ø., Storelvmo, T., and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM hist-cloud(2): CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00050, 2025c. a
Seland, Ø., Storelvmo, T., and Graff, L. S.: NorESM2-MM ssp585-cloud(2): CMOR-ized model data, NIRD RDA [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00051, 2025d. a
Sellevold, R., van Kampenhout, L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Noël, B., Lipscomb, W. H., and Vizcaino, M.: Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model: application to the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 13, 3193–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, 2019. a
Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N., and Holland, M. M.: The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification, The Cryosphere, 3, 11–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009, 2009. a, b
Shaw, J., McGraw, Z., Bruno, O., Storelvmo, T., and Hofer, S.: Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate Model Microphysical Representation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096191, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096191, 2022. a, b
Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., and Qiao, F.: Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models, Science Advances, 8, eabn9755, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn9755, 2022. a, b
Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Guo, C., Song, Z., Wang, S., He, Y., and Qiao, F.: Arctic Ocean simulations in the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2539–2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, 2023. a
Sterl, M. F., LaCasce, J. H., Groeskamp, S., Nummelin, A., Isachsen, P. E., and Baatsen, M. L. J.: Suppression of mesoscale eddy mixing by topographic PV gradients, J. Phys. Oceanogr., https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-23-0142.1, 2024. a
Sturm, M., Holmgren, J., König, M., and Morris, K.: The thermal conductivity of seasonal snow, J. Glaciol., 43, 26–41, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000002781, 1997. a, b, c, d
Sturm, M., Holmgren, J., and Perovich, D. K.: Winter snow cover on the sea ice of the Arctic Ocean at the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA): Temporal evolution and spatial variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 107, SHE 23–1–SHE 23–17, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000400, 2002. a, b
Tan, I. and Storelvmo, T.: Evidence of Strong Contributions From Mixed-Phase Clouds to Arctic Climate Change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2894–2902, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081871, 2019. a, b, c
Tan, I., Storelvmo, T., and Zelinka, M. D.: Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity, Science, 352, 224–227, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5300, 2016. a
Taylor, P. C., Boeke, R. C., Boisvert, L. N., Feldl, N., Henry, M., Huang, Y., Langen, P. L., Liu, W., Pithan, F., Sejas, S. A., and Tan, I.: Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming, Front. Earth Sci., 9, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.758361, 2022. a
Tilling, R. L., Ridout, A., and Shepherd, A.: Estimating Arctic sea ice thickness and volume using CryoSat-2 radar altimeter data, Adv. Space Res., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.10.051, 2018. a
Tjiputra, J. F., Schwinger, J., Bentsen, M., Morée, A. L., Gao, S., Bethke, I., Heinze, C., Goris, N., Gupta, A., He, Y.-C., Olivié, D., Seland, Ø., and Schulz, M.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2393–2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, 2020. a
Tjiputra, J. F., Negrel, J., and Olsen, A.: Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior, Sci. Rep., 13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0, 2023. a
Vizcaíno, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Jungclaus, J., and Schurgers, G.: Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance, Clim. Dynam., 34, 301–324, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0591-y, 2010. a
World Meteorological Organization: WMO Climatological Normals, https://community.wmo.int/en/wmo-climatological-normals, last access: 21 March 2024. a
Wu, X., Budd, W., Lytle, V., and Massom, R.: The effect of snow on Antarctic sea ice simulations in a coupled atmosphere-sea ice model, Clim. Dynam., 15, 127–143, 1999. a
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty found on the Atlantic side.
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint