Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 10 Oct 2025
| 10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ada Gjermundsen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Andreas Born
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Jens Boldingh Debernard
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Heiko Goelzer
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Yan-Chun He
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Petra Margaretha Langebroek
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Aleksi Nummelin
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Dirk Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Øyvind Seland
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Trude Storelvmo
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Mats Bentsen
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Chuncheng Guo
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Andrea Rosendahl
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Dandan Tao
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Thomas Toniazzo
NORCE Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stephen Outten
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Michael Schulz
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty found on the Atlantic side.
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth...
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