Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
02 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 02 Oct 2025
| 02 Oct 2025
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, USA
Casimir de Lavergne
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Lester Kwiatkowski
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jens Terhaar
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, and Thomas L. Frölicher
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Yona Silvy, Clément Rousset, Eric Guilyardi, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Juliette Mignot, Christian Ethé, and Gurvan Madec
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Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
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Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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Gilles Reverdin, Claire Waelbroeck, Catherine Pierre, Camille Akhoudas, Giovanni Aloisi, Marion Benetti, Bernard Bourlès, Magnus Danielsen, Jérôme Demange, Denis Diverrès, Jean-Claude Gascard, Marie-Noëlle Houssais, Hervé Le Goff, Pascale Lherminier, Claire Lo Monaco, Herlé Mercier, Nicolas Metzl, Simon Morisset, Aïcha Naamar, Thierry Reynaud, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Virginie Thierry, Susan E. Hartman, Edward W. Mawji, Solveig Olafsdottir, Torsten Kanzow, Anton Velo, Antje Voelker, Igor Yashayaev, F. Alexander Haumann, Melanie J. Leng, Carol Arrowsmith, and Michael Meredith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2721–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2721-2022, 2022
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Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021
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The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
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This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates of 21st century ocean and atmospheric warming than previously assessed, calling into question methods using past warming to constrain future warming.
This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates...
Short summary
Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming.
Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models....
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