Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, USA
Casimir de Lavergne
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Lester Kwiatkowski
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jens Terhaar
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Linus Vogt, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, and Casimir de Lavergne
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Madhavan Girijakumari Keerthi, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Marina Levy
Biogeosciences, 22, 2163–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2163-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2163-2025, 2025
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We assessed how well climate models replicate sub-seasonal changes in ocean chlorophyll observed by satellites. Models struggle to capture these variations accurately. Some overestimate fluctuations and their impact on annual chlorophyll variability, while others underestimate them. The underestimation is likely due to limited model resolution, while the overestimation may come from internal model oscillations.
Kirtana Naëck, Jacqueline Boutin, Sebastiaan Swart, Marcel du Plessis, Liliane Merlivat, Laurence Beaumont, Antonio Lourenco, Francesco d'Ovidio, Louise Rousselet, Brian Ward, and Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Biogeosciences, 22, 1947–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1947-2025, 2025
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Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 22, 1631–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025, 2025
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The ocean is a major natural carbon sink. Despite its importance, estimates of the ocean carbon sink remain uncertain. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022. By combining ocean models in hindcast mode and Earth system models, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This composite model estimate is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.
Lu Zhou, Holly Ayres, Birte Gülk, Aditya Narayanan, Casimir de Lavergne, Malin Ödalen, Alessandro Silvano, Xingchi Wang, Margaret Lindeman, and Nadine Steiger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-999, 2025
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Polynyas are large openings in polar sea ice that can influence global climate and ocean circulation. After disappearing for 40 years, major polynyas reappeared in the Weddell Sea in 2016 and 2017, sparking new scientific questions. Our review explores how ocean currents, atmospheric conditions, and deep ocean heat drive their formation. These polynyas impact ecosystems, carbon exchange, and deep water formation, but their future remains uncertain, requiring better observations and models.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
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Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, and Lester Kwiatkowski
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Disparities in ocean carbon sink estimates derived from observations and models raise questions about our ability to accurately assess its magnitude and trend. Essential for isolating the anthropogenic component of the total air-sea carbon flux estimated from observations, the pre-industrial air-sea carbon flux is a key source of uncertainty. Thus, we take a fresh look at this flux using the alkalinity budget, alongside the carbon budget which had previously been considered alone.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lucie Vignes, Audrey Minière, Nadine Steiger, Etienne Pauthenet, Antonio Lourenco, Kevin Speer, Peter Lazarevich, and Keith W. Nicholls
Ocean Sci., 20, 1267–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1267-2024, 2024
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In the Weddell Sea, we investigated how warm deep currents and cold waters containing freshwater released from the Antarctic are connected. We used autonomous observation devices that have never been used in this region previously and that allow us to track the movement and characteristics of water masses under the sea ice. Our findings show a dynamic interaction between warm masses, providing key insights to understand climate-related changes in the region.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Timothée Bourgeois, Olivier Torres, Friederike Fröb, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Giang T. Tran, Jörg Schwinger, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jean Negrel, David Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Jens Terhaar
Biogeosciences, 21, 3903–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024, 2024
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Despite the ocean’s importance in the carbon cycle and hence the climate, observing the ocean carbon sink remains challenging. Here, I use an ensemble of 12 models to understand drivers of decadal trends of the past, present, and future ocean carbon sink. I show that 80 % of the decadal trends in the multi-model mean ocean carbon sink can be explained by changes in decadal trends in atmospheric CO2. The remaining 20 % are due to internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
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Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
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Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Olivier Torres
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 565–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, 2024
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Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump. We show divergent responses of CaCO3 export throughout this century in earth system models, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from −74 % to +23 % under a high-emission scenario. While we confirm the limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on 21st century ocean carbon uptake and acidification, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in CaCO3 dissolution from deep to subsurface waters beyond 2100.
Narimane Dorey, Sophie Martin, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 20, 4289–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4289-2023, 2023
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Human CO2 emissions are modifying ocean carbonate chemistry, causing ocean acidification and likely already impacting marine ecosystems. Here, we added CO2 to intertidal pools at the start of emersion to investigate the influence of future ocean acidification on net community production (NCP) and calcification (NCC). By day, adding CO2 fertilized the pools (+20 % NCP). By night, pools experienced net community dissolution, a dissolution that was further increased (+40 %) by the CO2 addition.
Anne L. Morée, Tayler M. Clarke, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 20, 2425–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2425-2023, 2023
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Ocean temperature and oxygen shape marine habitats together with species’ characteristics. We calculated the impacts of projected 21st-century warming and oxygen loss on the contemporary habitat volume of 47 marine species and described the drivers of these impacts. Most species lose less than 5 % of their habitat at 2 °C of global warming, but some species incur losses 2–3 times greater than that. We also calculate which species may be most vulnerable to climate change and why this is the case.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 19, 5807–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, 2022
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Compound events threaten marine ecosystems. Here, we investigate the potentially harmful combination of marine heatwaves with low phytoplankton productivity. Using satellite-based observations, we show that these compound events are frequent in the low latitudes. We then investigate the drivers of these compound events using Earth system models. The models share similar drivers in the low latitudes but disagree in the high latitudes due to divergent factors limiting phytoplankton production.
Yona Silvy, Clément Rousset, Eric Guilyardi, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Juliette Mignot, Christian Ethé, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7683–7713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022, 2022
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A modeling framework is introduced to understand and decompose the mechanisms causing the ocean temperature, salinity and circulation to change since the pre-industrial period and into 21st century scenarios of global warming. This framework aims to look at the response to changes in the winds and in heat and freshwater exchanges at the ocean interface in global climate models, throughout the 1850–2100 period, to unravel their individual effects on the changing physical structure of the ocean.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
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Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Gilles Reverdin, Claire Waelbroeck, Catherine Pierre, Camille Akhoudas, Giovanni Aloisi, Marion Benetti, Bernard Bourlès, Magnus Danielsen, Jérôme Demange, Denis Diverrès, Jean-Claude Gascard, Marie-Noëlle Houssais, Hervé Le Goff, Pascale Lherminier, Claire Lo Monaco, Herlé Mercier, Nicolas Metzl, Simon Morisset, Aïcha Naamar, Thierry Reynaud, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Virginie Thierry, Susan E. Hartman, Edward W. Mawji, Solveig Olafsdottir, Torsten Kanzow, Anton Velo, Antje Voelker, Igor Yashayaev, F. Alexander Haumann, Melanie J. Leng, Carol Arrowsmith, and Michael Meredith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2721–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2721-2022, 2022
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The CISE-LOCEAN seawater stable isotope dataset has close to 8000 data entries. The δ18O and δD isotopic data measured at LOCEAN have uncertainties of at most 0.05 ‰ and 0.25 ‰, respectively. Some data were adjusted to correct for evaporation. The internal consistency indicates that the data can be used to investigate time and space variability to within 0.03 ‰ and 0.15 ‰ in δ18O–δD17; comparisons with data analyzed in other institutions suggest larger differences with other datasets.
Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021
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The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
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This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates of 21st century ocean and atmospheric warming than previously assessed, calling into question methods using past warming to constrain future warming.
This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates...
Short summary
Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming.
Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models....
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