Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
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- Final revised paper (published on 02 Oct 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 05 May 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1313', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jun 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Linus Vogt, 19 Jun 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1313', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Jun 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Linus Vogt, 19 Jun 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (21 Jun 2025) by Gabriele Messori

AR by Linus Vogt on behalf of the Authors (23 Jun 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (03 Jul 2025) by Gabriele Messori

AR by Linus Vogt on behalf of the Authors (03 Jul 2025)
Manuscript
Review for “Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent”, by Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
General comments
This manuscript presents a new emergent constraint relating present-day Antarctic sea ice extent with future ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. Using this new relationship, an updated estimate of ocean heat uptake is found to be higher than the ensemble mean estimate, and that the uncertainty is greatly reduced. While the increased heat uptake estimate is at odds with previous literature using other emergent constraints, the present-day sea ice extent used here is argued to be a more reliable predictor.
While the novelty of the study might not be obvious at first, since it relies on emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty on an already investigated metric (namely future Southern Ocean heat uptake), this manuscript actually provides a very valuable contribution to the overall understanding of the future of the Southern Ocean. The use of a new predictor, Antarctic sea ice extent, provides a more robust relationship and the new estimate of Southern Ocean heat uptake, of opposite direction compared to previous studies, feeds the discussion for future global and regional climates.
The manuscript is well written but more importantly, the study is well conducted, with several complementary data sources and methodological approaches used to provide a robust conclusion, and all results properly discussed. Many loose ends are convincingly tied in this study, except maybe the use of other sea ice extent-related metrics (especially the seasonal amplitude; see specific comment #3). This makes it a valuable manuscript, and I recommend publication once some minor concerns and modifications have been addressed.
Specific comments
Technical comments and small suggestions: