Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
Research article
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02 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 02 Oct 2025

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1313', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Linus Vogt, 19 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1313', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Linus Vogt, 19 Jun 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (21 Jun 2025) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Linus Vogt on behalf of the Authors (23 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (03 Jul 2025) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Linus Vogt on behalf of the Authors (03 Jul 2025)  Manuscript 
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Chief editor
This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates of 21st century ocean and atmospheric warming than previously assessed, calling into question methods using past warming to constrain future warming.
Short summary
Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming.
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