Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
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02 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 02 Oct 2025

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar

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Latest update: 05 Sep 2026
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Editorial statement
This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates of 21st century ocean and atmospheric warming than previously assessed, calling into question methods using past warming to constrain future warming.
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Short summary
Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming.
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