Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Research article
 | 
18 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 18 Jul 2025

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie

Related authors

Ideas for Creating Early Warning Systems in the Climate Sciences
Chris Huntingford, Jesse F. Abrams, Peter Ashwin, Niklas Boers, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Henk A. Dijkstra, Bahar Emirzade, Darren Ghent, Daniel Giles, Sneha Kachhara, Timothy M. Lenton, Valerio Lucarini, Helen Millman, Robert J. Parker, Sergei Petrovskii, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Cristina Ruiz Villena, Mark S. Williamson, and Niccolò Zagli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5606,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5606, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
A simple dynamical system for representing climate tipping points with hysteresis
Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 385–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026, 2026
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering has the potential to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 387–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-387-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-387-2026, 2026
Short summary
Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark S. Williamson, and Peter Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2087–2100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025, 2025
Short summary
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
Short summary
More articles (4)

Cited articles

Alkhayuon, H., Ashwin, P., Jackson, L. C., Quinn, C., and Wood, R. A.: Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model, P. R. Soc. A, 475, 20190051, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0051, 2019. a
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b, c, d
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306, 2012. a, b
Ben-Yami, M., Skiba, V., Bathiany, S., and Boers, N.: Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation, Nat. Commun., 14, 8344, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9, 2023. a
Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Rypdal, M., and Boers, N.: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 622, 528–536, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9, 2023. a, b
More articles (37)
Download
Short summary
For tipping points at low levels of global warming, overshoots of the threshold are becoming increasingly likely. Importantly, for some systems, tipping can still be avoided provided the forcing is reversed sufficiently quickly. Conditions for a mitigation window, which would avoid tipping, depend on system uncertainties. We highlight the need to account for uncertainty in the threshold location and other system features when designing climate mitigation strategies that avoid tipping.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint