Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Research article
 | 
18 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 18 Jul 2025

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie

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Short summary
For tipping points at low levels of global warming, overshoots of the threshold are becoming increasingly likely. Importantly, for some systems, tipping can still be avoided provided the forcing is reversed sufficiently quickly. Conditions for a mitigation window, which would avoid tipping, depend on system uncertainties. We highlight the need to account for uncertainty in the threshold location and other system features when designing climate mitigation strategies that avoid tipping.
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