Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025
Research article
 | 
18 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 18 Jul 2025

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie

Data sets

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds Paul Ritchie and Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15348821

Model code and software

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds Paul Ritchie and Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15348821

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Short summary
For tipping points at low levels of global warming, overshoots of the threshold are becoming increasingly likely. Importantly, for some systems, tipping can still be avoided provided the forcing is reversed sufficiently quickly. Conditions for a mitigation window, which would avoid tipping, depend on system uncertainties. We highlight the need to account for uncertainty in the threshold location and other system features when designing climate mitigation strategies that avoid tipping.
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