I have limited my review to focus on areas which the authors have changed in response to my prior comments. Line numbers refer to the marked-up manuscript.
I was very impressed by the thoroughness of the authors’ response. In particular I was happy to see the transition to an observational dataset in place of model reanalysis, and the extension to investigate PM2.5 elevates the paper substantially and brings it much closer to publication. However this also means that the manuscript must now pass the same level of scrutiny as any other investigation of future PM2.5, which is a high bar. This is the focus of my remaining concerns. The analysis is novel and I recognize the need for an efficient approach rather than (say) an additional set of CCM simulations, but the MLR approach used by the authors does cause me some concern. I have enumerated those concerns below and hope that the authors can address them.
The most significant issue is that a regression on a limited set of variables from historical data is used to predict future conditions. This is not inherently/fundamentally flawed, but there is a large body of literature which has investigated the nuanced relationship between future changes in climate and air quality, and how they are moderated by meteorological change (e.g. Jacob and Winner 2009, Fiore et al 2015). This has been looked at specifically in the context of health in China for ozone by e.g. Westervelt et al (2019). The challenge for modelers (including, now, the authors of this study) is whether past conditions accurately reflect the changes which will occur in the future. For example, it is possible that a geoengineering scenario could modify large scale dynamics in a way which is not reflected in past conditions, and which is different again from how those dynamics will be affected by climate change (Cheng et al 2022). It is also possible that the precursors dominating PM2.5 will change, modifying the relationship between emissions and concentrations. Such changes would affect the patterns of pollution movement and evolution in a way which a local regression would not be able to capture. With that in mind, I would recommend three significant further revisions (two focused on the above and one on framing).
First, I recommend that the authors take an existing dataset of air quality outcomes for current and future conditions and show that the MLR method is capable of providing reasonable results when past conditions are used to build a regressor which predicts future PM2.5 with evolving emissions and climate. One possibility in this regard would be the AerChemMIP model outputs. It is fair to say that there is a lack of data to accomplish this for geoengineering output (although GeoMIP and/or GLENS output may be sufficient). If the authors can at least show that a regressor provides a reasonably accurate prediction under a significant change in climate and emissions that would significantly strengthen their findings in this paper.
One of the most significant concerns I have in this respect is actually the nature of the regression. If I understand Sections 2.2 and 2.5 correctly, the authors are relating local PM2.5 concentrations to local PM2.5 emissions and local meteorology. However, PM2.5 is will known to be influence by both upwind (i.e. regional) emissions of PM2.5 and by emissions of PM2.5 precursors such as SO2, NOx, and ammonia. The importance of taking these factors is elevated when looking at higher resolution data. Based on my interpretation of lines 285-293, these factors are not included in the MLR which would be concerning. If my interpretation is incorrect then I recommend that the authors clarify this in the relevant sections and specify clearly a) what precursors are considered, b) how spatial relationships between emissions (or other factors) and concentrations are captured, and c) how their model will be able to capture a shift in the chemical regime. Concerns a and c are only significant if secondary PM2.5 is considered, so if instead only primary PM2.5 is considered then I strongly recommend this be made very clear in the paper and the conclusions and abstract caveated appropriately. However, in either case the question regarding concern b remains.
Second, I recommend that the authors compare their findings against existing projections of the change in surface PM2.5 in the target region over the next 40 years. There are several studies looking at how surface air quality in China might evolve under different scenarios (see e.g. Hong et al 2019). Showing that the regression-based approach can recover the majority of the climate change-induced signal would be valuable not only from the perspective of this paper, but from the perspective of the field more broadly.
Finally, I am surprised that the abstract and conclusions still do not provide any quantitative data regarding how the different downscaling methods affect the outcomes inspected here. By including the extension to PM2.5 I think the authors have done a good job of addressing my prior major concern (of this manuscript having no novelty when considered next to their existing work), but it would be helpful to include some high level conclusions regarding the degree to which model- (WRF) or statistics-based (ISIMIP) downscaling results in different or similar outcomes for health risks under different scenarios.
Minor comments
While I understand the authors’ statement that health impacts only matter when people are affected, I still believe that line 270 (“Since health impacts are more important where there are more people”) is likely to cause misunderstanding. I would recommend wording instead along the lines of “Since health impacts scale with the number of people affected”. As written, it sounds like a single person’s exposure is more important if they live in an urban rather than rural environment, when the intended meaning is instead (presumably) that an increase in concentration causes more health impact when a large number of people are exposed.
Upon review, it appears that the Eastham et al. (2018) study does include limited meteorological effects (line 120). It would perhaps be more accurate to state that the study included only a first-order estimate of temperature and precipitation change.
There remain some minor grammar and spelling errors (e.g. “statistically approach” on line 21, “gird” on line 334, “includes” should be “include” on line 326). Similarly, there is some confusing wording (e.g. “the ~1-2% wetter humidity has ~10% negative effect on decrease of PM2.5” – the multiple negatives here make it difficult to understand whether increasing humidity is causing an increase or decrease in PM2.5, “2.5” in PM2.5 is not subscripted in line 944). These are rare but I would suggest the authors take another pass through the manuscript to clean up these few issues.
References
Cheng, W., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Xu, Y., Luo, Y., Huang, L., Hu, Y., Staten, P. W., Hitchcock, P., Moore, J. C., Guo, A., and Deng, X.: Changes in Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone under strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 1–11, 2022.
Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., and Leibensperger, E. M.: Air quality and climate connections, J. Air Waste Manag. Assoc., 65, 645–685, 2015.
Hong, C., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Y., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China, PNAS, 2019.
Jacob, D. J. and Winner, D. a.: Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51–63, 2009.
Westervelt, D. M., Ma, C. T., He, M. Z., Fiore, A. M., Kinney, P. L., Kioumourtzoglou, M.-A., Wang, S., Xing, J., Ding, D., and Correa, G.: Mid-21st century ozone air quality and health burden in China under emissions scenarios and climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 074030, 2019. |