Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
27 Nov 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 27 Nov 2023
| 27 Nov 2023
Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress
Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Sönke Zaehle
Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Jean-Pierre Wigneron
INRAE, UMR1391 ISPA, Université de Bordeaux, 33140 Villenave d'Ornon, France
Christiane Schmullius
Department for Earth Observation, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
Ana Bastos
Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Tamara Emmerichs, Fabrice Lacroix, Victor Brovkin, Sönke Zaehle, Cheng Gong, Yu Zhu, Sofie Sjogersten, Carolina Voigt, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, and Eeva-Stiina Tuitila
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1514, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Shrubs use water and carbon differently and are expanding in warming tundra and grasslands, yet global models lack accuracy. We added two shrub types to a vegetation model including soil nutrients and carbon exchange. Half of the modeled shrubs showed good performance whereas their growth is 40 % higher as at grasses. Deciduous shrubs reduce nitrogen more than evergreens. Including shrubs improves Arctic carbon cycle predictions, revealing nitrogen limits cause underestimation in global models.
Laura Eifler, Franziska Müller, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 23, 1291–1325, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1291-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1291-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Forests provide ecosystem services and biodiversity, but they are increasingly affected by disturbances. We evaluate five forest disturbance datasets across the Unites States to assess their consistency in space, timing, and disturbance agents. While datasets show good agreement in disturbance timing, spatial overlap and agent attribution differ substantially. This emphasizes the need for enhanced data quality assessment, integration, and accuracy to better understand forest disturbances.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, Santiago Botía, Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Martin Jung, Fabian Gans, László Haszpra, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2561–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2561-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2561-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We create a hybrid ecosystem-level carbon flux model using both eddy-covariance observations and observations of the atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 at three tall-tower observatories. Our study uses an atmospheric transport model (STILT) to connect the atmospheric signal to the ecosystem-level model. We show that this inclusion of atmospheric information meaningfully improves the model's representation of the interannual variability of the global net flux of CO2.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Nora Linscheid, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 23, 767–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-767-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-767-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We study when anthropogenic signal becomes detectable in the global land carbon sink, which has risen since the 1950s due to CO₂ fertilization and mid- to high-latitude warming. The signal emerges earlier at the global than at regional scales. Future scenarios (2016–2100) take longer to detect than the historical period (1851–2014) because the signal is weaker relative to larger natural variability. Removing circulation-induced variability with dynamical adjustment shortens the detection time.
Zanpin Xing, Xiaojun Li, Frédéric Frappart, Gabrielle De Lannoy, Thomas Jagdhuber, Jian Peng, Lei Fan, Hongliang Ma, Karthikeyan Lanka, Xiangzhuo Liu, Mengjia Wang, Lin Zhao, Yongqin Liu, and Jean-Pierre Wigneron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-728, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-728, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations of Earth's land surface are important for tracking soil and vegetation water. We use data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite to build a new product that cleans the raw microwave signal and yields more reliable estimates of soil moisture and vegetation water content. Tests against ground stations and other satellites show that the new record exceeds existing products and can support applications such as drought, freeze–thaw, and carbon monitoring.
Josua Seitz, Midori Yajima, Yu Zhu, Lumnesh Swaroop Kumar Joseph, Jinyan Yang, Fabrice Lacroix, Yunpeng Luo, Andreas Schaumberger, Michael Bahn, Sönke Zaehle, and Silvia Caldararu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5731, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new global leaf turnover model for grasslands in the QUINCY land surface model. Land surface models often struggle to simulate grassland carbon dynamics and phenology accurately. By allowing environmental conditions to directly control leaf senescence we improve its timing as well as the accuracy of whole-season carbon dynamics across a wide range of climates and grassland ecosystems.
Tea Thum, Christine L. Goodale, Lin Yu, Julia Nabel, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5876, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen and carbon cycle have manifold interactions and to be able predict carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation, ability to model nitrogen cycle properly is important. 15N tracer experiments can be helpful, as they track the fate where added nitrogen will end up in the ecosystem. We simulated one such experiment with a model containing 15N cycle and found that comparison with data helped to evaluate the model in different aspects.
Cheng Gong, Yan Wang, Hanqin Tian, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17009–17025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17009-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our results showed substantially varied fertilizer-induced soil NOx emissions in 2019 from 0.84 to 2.2 Tg N yr-1 globally. Such variations further lead to 0.1 to 3.3 ppbv summertime ozone enhancement in agricultural hotspot regions and 6.7 ppbv to 16.6 ppbv reductions in global methane concentrations.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Hanna Lee, Stefano Materia, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth System Models are the principal tools for scientists to study past, present, and future climate changes. This work investigates the ability of a set of them to represent the observed changes in vegetation, which are vital to estimating the impact of future climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study highlights the main limitations in correctly representing vegetation variability. These tools still need further development to improve our understanding of future changes.
Dieu Anh Tran, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Christoph Gerbig, Michał Gałkowski, Santiago Botía, Kim Faassen, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16553–16588, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16553-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16553-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis of CH4 data (2010–2021) from ZOtino Tall Tower Observatory in Central Siberia shows an increase in the late summer diurnal amplitude, driven by nighttime emissions. These trends correlate with rising soil temperature and moisture during the late summer and snow depth of the preceding spring. Peaks in 2012 and 2019 emission link to wildfires activity. Findings suggest wetlands as key CH4 sources and underscore the need for ongoing high-resolution monitoring in this region.
Tuuli Miinalainen, Amanda Ojasalo, Holly Croft, Mika Aurela, Mikko Peltoniemi, Silvia Caldararu, Sönke Zaehle, and Tea Thum
Biogeosciences, 22, 6937–6962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6937-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6937-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the future carbon budget requires an accurate understanding of the interlinkages between the land carbon and nitrogen cycles. We use a remote sensing leaf chlorophyll product to evaluate a terrestrial biosphere model, QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system). Our study showcases how the latest advancements in remote sensing-based vegetation monitoring can be harnessed for improving and evaluating process-based vegetation models.
Franziska Müller, Laura Eifler, Felix Cremer, Pieter Beck, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4880, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forest health is increasingly threatened, but disturbances like wind damage and insect outbreaks are hard to track. Our Sentinel-1 Disturbance Mapping (S1DM) approach combines satellite radar with survey data, improving detection for wind and bark beetle impacts and often spotting them earlier. Defoliators remain difficult to capture, but this method strengthens monitoring and supports better forest management.
Carlos A. Sierra, Ingrid Chanca, Meinrat O. Andreae, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Hella van Asperen, Lars Borchardt, Santiago Botía, Luiz Antonio Candido, Caio S. C. Correa, Cléo Quaresma Dias-Junior, Markus Eritt, Annica Fröhlich, Luciana V. Gatti, Marcus Guderle, Samuel Hammer, Martin Heimann, Viviana Horna, Armin Jordan, Steffen Knabe, Richard Kneißl, Jost Valentin Lavric, Ingeborg Levin, Kita Macario, Juliana Menger, Heiko Moossen, Carlos Alberto Quesada, Michael Rothe, Christian Rödenbeck, Yago Santos, Axel Steinhof, Bruno Takeshi, Susan Trumbore, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5871–5884, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5871-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5871-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present here a unique dataset of atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases and isotopes that provide key information on land-atmosphere interactions for the Amazon forests of central Brazil. The data show a relatively large level of variability, but also important trends in greenhouse gases, and signals from fires as well as seasonal biological activity.
Anna T. Schackow, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, David T. Milodowski, Jean-Marc Limousin, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4884, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Plants regulate how much water they lose and how much carbon they take in, but rising heat and dryness make this balance harder. We studied how water movement inside plant stems changes during the day and relates to dryness in the air and soil. By analyzing these daily patterns, we identified signals of stress that could be tracked not only with sensors in plants but also from satellites, offering new ways to monitor global vegetation health.
Kristian Schufft, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, Lin Yu, Mingkai Jiang, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4286, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Root exudation describes a process in which plants allocate labile carbon through roots into soils, thereby influencing microbial carbon and nutrient cycling. We implemented root exudation in a computer model that simulates ecosystem processes. Increased atmospheric CO2 led to increased root exudation, but the additional input was partially offset by enhanced microbial respiration. Our research brings new perspectives in modelling soil carbon and nutrient cycling in forests under increasing CO2.
Tea Thum, Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Mika Aurela, Alan Barr, Marika Honkanen, Bruce Johnson, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Troy Magney, Mirco Migliavacca, Zoe Amie Pierrat, Tristan Quaife, Jochen Stutz, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4432, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an optical signal emitted by plants, connected to the biochemical status of the plants. Therefore it helps to unveil what happens inside plants and since it can be observed with remote sensing, it provides a global view of plant activity. We included SIF module in a terrestrial biosphere model and examined how to best describe movement of the SIF signal in the forest. Our work will help to model SIF in boreal coniferous forests.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Giles B. Sioen, Ana Bastos, Yolandi Ernst, Marcin P. Jarzebski, Niak S. Koh, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Amanda J. Aceituno, Andra-Ioana Horcea-Milcu, Andrea Marais-Potgieter, Ayyoob Sharifi, Caroline Howe, Cornelia B. Krug, Eduardo E. Acosta, Emmanuel F. Nzunda, Erik Andersson, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Helen Sooväli-Sepping, Ishihara Hiroe, Ivan Palmegiani, Kaera Coetzer, Kirsten Thonike, Krizler Tanalgo, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger, Nicholas O. Oguge, Mi S. Park, Milena Gross, Pablo De La Cruz, Paula R. Prist, Peng Bi, Rivera Diego, Roman Isaac, Rosemary McFarlane, Sinikka J. Paulus, Stefanie Burkhart, Sung-Ching Lee, Susanne Müller, Uchi D. Terhile, Wan-Yu Shih, William K. Smith, Viola Hakkarainen, Virginia Murray, Yuki Yoshida, Yohannes T. Damtew, and Zeenat Niazi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3619, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this series is to provide decision-makers with valuable insights into the current state of biosphere research. Firstly, it is intended to ensure the flow of information between the comprehensive assessment reports of the IPCC and IPBES. On the other hand, it is intended to support economic and political decisions closely related to the biosphere with scientifically sound findings – including uncertainties – and comprehensive polysolutions, helping to solve the earth system polycrisis.
Rubaya Pervin, Scott Robeson, Mallory Barnes, Stephen Sitch, Anthony Walker, Ben Poulter, Fabienne Maignan, Qing Sun, Thomas Colligan, Sönke Zaehle, Kashif Mahmud, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Vladislav Bastrikov, Liam Bogucki, Bertrand Decharme, Christine Delire, Stefanie Falk, Akihiko Ito, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Michael O’Sullivan, Wenping Yuan, and Natasha MacBean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drylands contribute more than a third of the global vegetation productivity. Yet, these regions are not well represented in global vegetation models. Here, we tested how well 15 global models capture annual changes in dryland vegetation productivity. Models that didn’t have vegetation change over time or fire have lower variability in vegetation productivity. Models need better representation of grass cover types and their coverage. Our work highlights where and how these models need to improve.
Zhixuan Guo, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Simon P. K. Bowring, Ana Bastos, Florent Mouillot, Jiaying He, Minxuan Sun, Lei Zhu, Xiaomeng Du, Nan Wang, and Xiaomeng Huang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3599–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3599-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To address the limitations of short time spans in satellite data and spatiotemporal discontinuity in site records, we reconstructed global monthly burned area maps at a 0.5° resolution for 1901–2020 using machine learning models. The global burned area is predicted at 3.46 × 106–4.58 × 106 km² per year, showing a decline from 1901 to 1978, an increase from 1978 to 2008 and a sharper decrease from 2008 to 2020. This dataset provides a benchmark for studies on fire ecology and the carbon cycle.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7863–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The carbon uptake period (CUP) is the time period when land absorbs more CO2 than it emits. While atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements can be used to assess CUP changes, atmospheric transport and asynchronous timing across regions reduce the accuracy of the estimates. Forward model experiments show that only ~ 50 % of prescribed shifts in CUP timing applied to surface fluxes (ΔCUPNEE) are captured in simulated CO2 mole fraction data at monitoring sites like the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory.
Guohua Liu, Philippe Ciais, Shengli Tao, Hui Yang, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-330, 2025
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a long-term and high-resolution global map of above-ground biomass changes from 1993 to 2020 using radar data and machine learning approach. This dataset can help understand the effects of disturbances, land-use changes, and extreme events on global carbon cycle, and enhance the representation of these processes in Earth System Models.
Mara Y. McPartland, Tomas Lovato, Charles D. Koven, Jamie D. Wilson, Briony Turner, Colleen M. Petrik, José Licón-Saláiz, Fang Li, Fanny Lhardy, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Michio Kawamiya, Birgit Hassler, Nathan P. Gillett, Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christopher Danek, Chris M. Brierley, Ana Bastos, and Oliver Andrews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3246, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international consortium of climate modeling groups that produce coordinated experiments in order to evaluate human influence on the climate and test knowledge of Earth systems. This paper describes the data requested for Earth systems research in CMIP7. We detail the request for model output of the carbon cycle, the flows of energy among the atmosphere, land and the oceans, and interactions between these and the global climate.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin C. Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Mirco Migliavacca, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter H. Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
Biogeosciences, 22, 2425–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An interdisciplinary collaboration of 36 international researchers from 35 institutions highlights recent findings in biosphere research. Within eight themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. Based on an analysis of these eight topics, we have synthesized four overarching insights.
Tea Thum, Tuuli Miinalainen, Outi Seppälä, Holly Croft, Cheryl Rogers, Ralf Staebler, Silvia Caldararu, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 1781–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has the potential to influence the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems, and here the nitrogen cycle is also important. We used the terrestrial biosphere model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system) in a mixed deciduous forest in Canada. We investigated the usefulness of using the leaf area index and leaf chlorophyll content to improve the parameterization of the model. This work paves the way for using spaceborne observations in model parameterizations, also including information on the nitrogen cycle.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1121–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three principal GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to our previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included and an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 151–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate mode, has a similar impact on CO2 growth rates across Earth system models, there is significant uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect that masks differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies and observed that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomalies originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
How plants regulate their exchange of CO2 and water with the atmosphere under global warming is critical for their carbon uptake and their cooling influence. We analyze the isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 and detect no significant decadal trends in the seasonal cycle amplitude. The data are consistent with the regulation towards leaf CO2 and intrinsic water use efficiency growing proportionally to atmospheric CO2, in contrast to recent suggestions of downregulation of CO2 and water fluxes.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Gabriela Sophia, Silvia Caldararu, Benjamin David Stocker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through an extensive global dataset of leaf nutrient resorption and a multifactorial analysis, we show that the majority of spatial variation in nutrient resorption may be driven by leaf habit and type, with thicker, longer-lived leaves having lower resorption efficiencies. Climate, soil fertility and soil-related factors emerge as strong drivers with an additional effect on its role. These results are essential for comprehending plant nutrient status, plant productivity and nutrient cycling.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Fabian Gans, Wouter Peters, Basil Kraft, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2555–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven eddy-covariance upscaled estimates of the global land–atmosphere net CO2 exchange (NEE) show important mismatches with regional and global estimates based on atmospheric information. To address this, we create a model with a dual constraint based on bottom-up eddy-covariance data and top-down atmospheric inversion data. Our model overcomes shortcomings of each approach, producing improved NEE estimates from local to global scale, helping to reduce uncertainty in the carbon budget.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Hui Yang, Krzysztof Stereńczak, Zbigniew Karaszewski, and Nuno Carvalhais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2691, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Wood density is crucial for ecological and carbon stock assessment, yet its labor-intensive analysis limits studies across species and spaces. Our study, based on 48,000 samples from Central Europe, reveals that, even without species information, 91% of inter-tree variations can be predicted by vegetation indexes, topography, and soil texture. Importantly, we highlight neglected intra-tree variation, showing substantial variations vertically along the height and radially from the center to bark.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Aurélien De Truchis, Jérôme Chave, Catherine Ottlé, Cedric Vega, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Manuel Nicolas, Sami Jouaber, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, and Ibrahim Fayad
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4927–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As forests play a key role in climate-related issues, their accurate monitoring is critical to reduce global carbon emissions effectively. Based on open-access remote-sensing sensors, and artificial intelligence methods, we created high-resolution tree height, wood volume, and biomass maps of metropolitan France that outperform previous products. This study, based on freely available data, provides essential information to support climate-efficient forest management policies at a low cost.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Julia Marshall, Wouter Peters, Pieter Tans, and Markus Reichstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3299–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The timing and duration of the carbon uptake period (CUP) are sensitive to the occurrence of major phenological events, which are influenced by recent climate change. This study presents an ensemble-based approach for quantifying the timing and duration of the CUP and their uncertainty when derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements with noise and gaps. The CUP metrics derived with the approach are more robust and have less uncertainty than when estimated with the conventional methods.
Aparnna Ravi, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Stephen Sitch, Sönke Zaehle, Vishnu Thilakan, and Chandra Shekhar Jha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We derive high-resolution terrestrial CO2 fluxes over India from 2012 to 2020. This is achieved by utilizing satellite-based vegetation indices and meteorological data in a data-driven biospheric model. The model simulations are improved by incorporating soil variables and SIF retrievals from satellite instruments and relate them to ecosystem productivity across different biomes. The derived flux products better explain the flux variability compared to other existing model estimates.
Shengli Tao, Zurui Ao, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Sassan Saatchi, Philippe Ciais, Jérôme Chave, Thuy Le Toan, Pierre-Louis Frison, Xiaomei Hu, Chi Chen, Lei Fan, Mengjia Wang, Jiangling Zhu, Xia Zhao, Xiaojun Li, Xiangzhuo Liu, Yanjun Su, Tianyu Hu, Qinghua Guo, Zhiheng Wang, Zhiyao Tang, Yi Y. Liu, and Jingyun Fang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1577–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first long-term (since 1992), high-resolution (8.9 km) satellite radar backscatter data set (LHScat) with a C-band (5.3 GHz) signal dynamic for global lands. LHScat was created by fusing signals from ERS (1992–2001; C-band), QSCAT (1999–2009; Ku-band), and ASCAT (since 2007; C-band). LHScat has been validated against independent ERS-2 signals. It could be used in a variety of studies, such as vegetation monitoring and hydrological modelling.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Lin Yu, Silvia Caldararu, Bernhard Ahrens, Thomas Wutzler, Marion Schrumpf, Julian Helfenstein, Chiara Pistocchi, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 20, 57–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we addressed a key weakness in current ecosystem models regarding the phosphorus exchange in the soil and developed a new scheme to describe this process. We showed that the new scheme improved the model performance for plant productivity, soil organic carbon, and soil phosphorus content at five beech forest sites in Germany. We claim that this new model could be used as a better tool to study ecosystems under future climate change, particularly phosphorus-limited systems.
Thomas Wutzler, Lin Yu, Marion Schrumpf, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8377–8393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil microbes process soil organic matter and affect carbon storage and plant nutrition at the ecosystem scale. We hypothesized that decadal dynamics is constrained by the ratios of elements in litter inputs, microbes, and matter and that microbial community optimizes growth. This allowed the SESAM model to descibe decadal-term carbon sequestration in soils and other biogeochemical processes explicitly accounting for microbial processes but without its problematic fine-scale parameterization.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies on spatiotemporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Xin Yu, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Michael Bahn, Anne Klosterhalfen, Alexander Knohl, Franziska Koebsch, Mirco Migliavacca, Martina Mund, Jacob A. Nelson, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sophia Walther, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4315–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Identifying drought legacy effects is challenging because they are superimposed on variability driven by climate conditions in the recovery period. We develop a residual-based approach to quantify legacies on gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance data. The GPP reduction due to legacy effects is comparable to the concurrent effects at two sites in Germany, which reveals the importance of legacy effects. Our novel methodology can be used to quantify drought legacies elsewhere.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fluxes from land-use change and management (FLUC) are a large source of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we evaluate the impact of different model parameterisations on FLUC. We show that carbon stock densities and allocation of carbon following transitions contribute more to uncertainty in FLUC than response-curve time constants. Uncertainty in FLUC could thus, in principle, be reduced by available Earth-observation data on carbon densities at a global scale.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
M. M. Mueller, C. Dubois, T. Jagdhuber, C. Pathe, and C. Schmullius
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2021, 127–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-127-2021, 2021
C. Dubois, B. Jutzi, M. Olijslagers, C. Pathe, C. Schmullius, M. A. Stelmaszczuk-Górska, D. Vandenbroucke, and M. Weinmann
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-5-2021, 9–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-5-2021-9-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-5-2021-9-2021, 2021
Martina Franz and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The combined effects of ozone and nitrogen deposition on the terrestrial carbon uptake and storage has been unclear. Our simulations, from 1850 to 2099, show that ozone-related damage considerably reduced gross primary production and carbon storage in the past. The growth-stimulating effect induced by nitrogen deposition is offset until the 2050s. Accounting for nitrogen deposition without considering ozone effects might lead to an overestimation of terrestrial carbon uptake and storage.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Cited articles
Ahlström, A., Raupach, M. R., Schurgers, G., Smith, B., Arneth, A., Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Canadell, J. G., Friedlingstein, P., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Poulter, B., Sitch, S., Stocker, B. D., Viovy, N., Wang, Y. P., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink, Science, 348, 895–899, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa1668, 2015.
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A., and Cobb, N.: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest. Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001, 2010.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Konings, A. G., Trugman, A. T., Yu, K., Bowling, D. R., Gabbitas, R., Karp, D. S., Pacala, S., Sperry, J. S., Sulman, B. N., and Zenes, N.: Hydraulic diversity of forests regulates ecosystem resilience during drought, Nature, 561, 538–541, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0539-7, 2018.
Araza, A., Herold, M., de Bruin, S., Ciais, P., Gibbs, D. A., Harris, N., Santoro, M., Wigneron, J.-P., Yang, H., Málaga, N., Nesha, K., Rodriguez-Veiga, P., Brovkina, O., Brown, H. C. A., Chanev, M., Dimitrov, Z., Filchev, L., Fridman, J., García, M., Gikov, A., Govaere, L., Dimitrov, P., Moradi, F., Muelbert, A. E., Novotný, J., Pugh, T. A. M., Schelhaas, M.-J., Schepaschenko, D., Stereńczak, K., and Hein, L.: Past decade above-ground biomass change comparisons from four multi-temporal global maps, Int. J. Appl. Earth. Obs., 118, 103274, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2023.103274, 2023.
Barron-Gafford, G. A., Cable, J. M., Bentley, L. P., Scott, R. L., Huxman, T. E., Jenerette, G. D., and Ogle, K.: Quantifying the timescales over which exogenous and endogenous conditions affect soil respiration, New Phytol., 202, 442–454, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12675, 2014.
Bastos, A., Fu, Z., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Weber, U., Reichstein, M., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Jain, A., Joetzjer, E., Knauer, J., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., Obermeier, W., Padrón, R. S., Shi, H., Tian, H., Viovy, N., and Zaehle, S.: Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 375, 20190507, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0507, 2020.
Besnard, S., Koirala, S., Santoro, M., Weber, U., Nelson, J., Gütter, J., Herault, B., Kassi, J., N'Guessan, A., Neigh, C., Poulter, B., Zhang, T., and Carvalhais, N.: Mapping global forest age from forest inventories, biomass and climate data, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4881–4896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, 2021.
Boisvenue, C. and Running, S. W.: Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 862–882, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01134.x, 2006.
Brandt, M., Wigneron, J.-P., Chave, J., Tagesson, T., Penuelas, J., Ciais, P., Rasmussen, K., Tian, F., Mbow, C., Al-Yaari, A., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Schurgers, G., Zhang, W., Chang, J., Kerr, Y., Verger, A., Tucker, C., Mialon, A., Rasmussen, L. V., Fan, L., and Fensholt, R.: Satellite passive microwaves reveal recent climate-induced carbon losses in African drylands, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 2, 827–835, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0530-6, 2018.
Briant, G., Gond, V., and Laurance, S. G. W.: Habitat fragmentation and the desiccation of forest canopies: A case study from eastern Amazonia, Biol. Conserv., 143, 2763–2769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.07.024, 2010.
Broadbent, E. N., Asner, G. P., Keller, M., Knapp, D. E., Oliveira, P. J. C., and Silva, J. N.: Forest fragmentation and edge effects from deforestation and selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Biol. Conserv., 141, 1745–1757, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.04.024, 2008.
Buermann, W., Forkel, M., O'Sullivan, M., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kautz, M., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Tian, H., Wiltshire, A. J., Zhu, D., Smith, W. K., and Richardson, A. D.: Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity, Nature, 562, 110–114, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0555-7, 2018.
Camps-Valls, G., Campos-Taberner, M., Moreno-Martínez, Á., Walther, S., Duveiller, G., Cescatti, A., Mahecha, M. D., Muñoz-Marí, J., García-Haro, F. J., Guanter, L., Jung, M., Gamon, J. A., Reichstein, M., and Running, S. W.: A unified vegetation index for quantifying the terrestrial biosphere, Sci. Adv., 7, eabc7447, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc7447, 2021.
Canadell, J., Jackson, R. B., Ehleringer, J. B., Mooney, H. A., Sala, O. E., and Schulze, E.-D.: Maximum rooting depth of vegetation types at the global scale, Oecologia, 108, 583–595, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00329030, 1996.
Cheng, Y., Liu, L., Cheng, L., Fa, K., Liu, X., Huo, Z., and Huang, G.: A shift in the dominant role of atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture on vegetation greening in China, J. Hydrol., 615, 128680, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128680, 2022.
Condit, R., Hubbell, S., and Foster, R.: Mortality-Rates of 205 Neotropical Tree and Shrub Species and the Impact of a Severe Drought, Ecol. Monogr., 65, 419–439, https://doi.org/10.2307/2963497, 1995.
Cranko Page, J., De Kauwe, M. G., Abramowitz, G., Cleverly, J., Hinko-Najera, N., Hovenden, M. J., Liu, Y., Pitman, A. J., and Ogle, K.: Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems, Biogeosciences, 19, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022, 2022.
D'Amato, A. W., Bradford, J. B., Fraver, S., and Palik, B. J.: Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems, Ecol. Appl., 23, 1735–1742, https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0677.1, 2013.
De Keersmaecker, W., van Rooijen, N., Lhermitte, S., Tits, L., Schaminée, J., Coppin, P., Honnay, O., and Somers, B.: Species-rich semi-natural grasslands have a higher resistance but a lower resilience than intensively managed agricultural grasslands in response to climate anomalies, J. Appl. Ecol., 53, 430–439, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12595, 2016.
Denissen, J. M. C., Teuling, A. J., Pitman, A. J., Koirala, S., Migliavacca, M., Li, W., Reichstein, M., Winkler, A. J., Zhan, C., and Orth, R.: Widespread shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation with climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 677–684, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01403-8, 2022.
DeSoto, L., Cailleret, M., Sterck, F., Jansen, S., Kramer, K., Robert, E. M. R., Aakala, T., Amoroso, M. M., Bigler, C., Camarero, J. J., Čufar, K., Gea-Izquierdo, G., Gillner, S., Haavik, L. J., Hereş, A.-M., Kane, J. M., Kharuk, V. I., Kitzberger, T., Klein, T., Levanič, T., Linares, J. C., Mäkinen, H., Oberhuber, W., Papadopoulos, A., Rohner, B., Sangüesa-Barreda, G., Stojanovic, D. B., Suárez, M. L., Villalba, R., and Martínez-Vilalta, J.: Low growth resilience to drought is related to future mortality risk in trees, Nat. Commun., 11, 545, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14300-5, 2020.
Di Gregorio, A.: Land Cover Classification System: Classification Concepts and User Manual: LCCS, Food & Agriculture Org., Rome, Italy, Vol. 2, 2005.
Didan, K.: MOD13C2 MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 0.05PDeg CMG, NASA LP DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13C2.006, 2015.
ECMWF: ECMWF Reanalysis v5, ECMWF [data set], https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5, last access: 15 November 2022.
Elias, F., Ferreira, J., Lennox, G. D., Berenguer, E., Ferreira, S., Schwartz, G., Melo, L. de O., Reis Júnior, D. N., Nascimento, R. O., Ferreira, F. N., Espirito-Santo, F., Smith, C. C., and Barlow, J.: Assessing the growth and climate sensitivity of secondary forests in highly deforested Amazonian landscapes, Ecology, 101, e02954, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2954, 2020.
ESA: Land Cover CCI Product User Guide Version 2.0, https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download/ESACCI-LC-Ph2-PUGv2_2.0.pdf, last access: 19 December 2022.
ESA-CCI: ESA-CCI Land cover, ESA-CCI [data set], https://www.esa-landcover-cci.org/?q=node/164, last access: 15 November 2022.
Fan, L., Wigneron, J.-P., Ciais, P., Chave, J., Brandt, M., Fensholt, R., Saatchi, S. S., Bastos, A., Al-Yaari, A., Hufkens, K., Qin, Y., Xiao, X., Chen, C., Myneni, R. B., Fernandez-Moran, R., Mialon, A., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N. J., Kerr, Y., Tian, F., and Peñuelas, J.: Satellite-observed pantropical carbon dynamics, Nat. Plants, 5, 944–951, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-019-0478-9, 2019.
FAO: Global map of irrigated areas, FAO [data set], https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/geospatial-information/global-maps-irrigated-areas/latest-version, last access: 15 November 2022.
Fawcett, D., Sitch, S., Ciais, P., Wigneron, J. P., Silva-Junior, C. H. L., Heinrich, V., Vancutsem, C., Achard, F., Bastos, A., Yang, H., Li, X., Albergel, C., Friedlingstein, P., and Aragão, L. E. O. C.: Declining Amazon biomass due to deforestation and subsequent degradation losses exceeding gains, Glob. Change Biol., 29, 1106–1118, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16513, 2022.
Flach, M., Sippel, S., Gans, F., Bastos, A., Brenning, A., Reichstein, M., and Mahecha, M. D.: Contrasting biosphere responses to hydrometeorological extremes: revisiting the 2010 western Russian heatwave, Biogeosciences, 15, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, 2018.
Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R., Heimann, M., Thonicke, K., Zaehle, S., and Reichstein, M.: Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems, Science, 351, 696–699, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4971, 2016.
Friedl, M. and Sulla-Menashe, D.: MCD12Q1 MODIS/Terra+Aqua Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 500 m SIN Grid V006, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD12Q1.006, 2019.
Gampe, D., Zscheischler, J., Reichstein, M., O'Sullivan, M., Smith, W. K., Sitch, S., and Buermann, W.: Increasing impact of warm droughts on northern ecosystem productivity over recent decades, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 772–779, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01112-8, 2021.
Gessler, A., Bottero, A., Marshall, J., and Arend, M.: The way back: recovery of trees from drought and its implication for acclimation, New Phytol., 228, 1704–1709, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16703, 2020.
Giardina, F., Konings, A. G., Kennedy, D., Alemohammad, S. H., Oliveira, R. S., Uriarte, M., and Gentine, P.: Tall Amazonian forests are less sensitive to precipitation variability, Nat. Geosci., 11, 405–409, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0133-5, 2018.
Gibson, L., Lee, T. M., Koh, L. P., Brook, B. W., Gardner, T. A., Barlow, J., Peres, C. A., Bradshaw, C. J. A., Laurance, W. F., Lovejoy, T. E., and Sodhi, N. S.: Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity, Nature, 478, 378–381, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10425, 2011.
Grossiord, C., Granier, A., Ratcliffe, S., Bouriaud, O., Bruelheide, H., Chećko, E., Forrester, D. I., Dawud, S. M., Finér, L., Pollastrini, M., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Valladares, F., Bonal, D., and Gessler, A.: Tree diversity does not always improve resistance of forest ecosystems to drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 14812–14815, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411970111, 2014.
Hartley, A. J., MacBean, N., Georgievski, G., and Bontemps, S.: Uncertainty in plant functional type distributions and its impact on land surface models, Remote Sens. Environ., 203, 71–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.037, 2017.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020.
Ingrisch, J. and Bahn, M.: Towards a Comparable Quantification of Resilience, Trends Ecol. Evol., 33, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.01.013, 2018.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Isbell, F., Craven, D., Connolly, J., Loreau, M., Schmid, B., Beierkuhnlein, C., Bezemer, T. M., Bonin, C., Bruelheide, H., de Luca, E., Ebeling, A., Griffin, J. N., Guo, Q., Hautier, Y., Hector, A., Jentsch, A., Kreyling, J., Lanta, V., Manning, P., Meyer, S. T., Mori, A. S., Naeem, S., Niklaus, P. A., Polley, H. W., Reich, P. B., Roscher, C., Seabloom, E. W., Smith, M. D., Thakur, M. P., Tilman, D., Tracy, B. F., van der Putten, W. H., van Ruijven, J., Weigelt, A., Weisser, W. W., Wilsey, B., and Eisenhauer, N.: Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes, Nature, 526, 574–577, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15374, 2015.
Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez, J. M., Alves, L. M., Bedia, J., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cimadevilla, E., Cofiño, A. S., Di Luca, A., Faria, S. H., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Hauser, M., Herrera, S., Hennessy, K., Hewitt, H. T., Jones, R. G., Krakovska, S., Manzanas, R., Martínez-Castro, D., Narisma, G. T., Nurhati, I. S., Pinto, I., Seneviratne, S. I., van den Hurk, B., and Vera, C. S.: An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2959–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020, 2020a.
Iturbide, M., Gutierrez, J. M., Cimadevilla Alvarez, E., Bedia, J., Hauser, M., and Manzanas, R.: SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS: Final version of “IPCC WGI reference regions v4” (v1.6), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463, 2020b.
Jia, G., Shevliakova, E., Artaxo, P., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Houghton, R., House, J., Kitajima, K., Lennard, C., Popp, A., Sirin, A., Sukumar, R., and Verchot, L.: Land–climate interactions, in: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 131–248, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988.004, 2022.
Keenan, T. F., Gray, J., Friedl, M. A., Toomey, M., Bohrer, G., Hollinger, D. Y., Munger, J. W., O'Keefe, J., Schmid, H. P., Wing, I. S., Yang, B., and Richardson, A. D.: Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 598–604, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2253, 2014.
Konings, A. G., Holtzman, N. M., Rao, K., Xu, L., and Saatchi, S. S.: Interannual Variations of Vegetation Optical Depth are Due to Both Water Stress and Biomass Changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095267, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095267, 2021.
Land Use Harmonization: LUH2 v2h, https://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml, last access: 15 November 2022.
Li, W., MacBean, N., Ciais, P., Defourny, P., Lamarche, C., Bontemps, S., Houghton, R. A., and Peng, S.: Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, 2018.
Li, X., Wigneron, J.-P., Frappart, F., Fan, L., Ciais, P., Fensholt, R., Entekhabi, D., Brandt, M., Konings, A. G., Liu, X., Wang, M., Al-Yaari, A., and Moisy, C.: Global-scale assessment and inter-comparison of recently developed/reprocessed microwave satellite vegetation optical depth products, Remote Sens. Environ., 253, 112208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.112208, 2021.
Liu, D., Wang, T., Peñuelas, J., and Piao, S.: Drought resistance enhanced by tree species diversity in global forests, Nat. Geosci., 15, 800–804, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01026-w, 2022.
Liu, F., Liu, H., Xu, C., Shi, L., Zhu, X., Qi, Y., and He, W.: Old-growth forests show low canopy resilience to droughts at the southern edge of the taiga, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 2392–2402, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15605, 2021.
Liu, L., Chen, X., Ciais, P., Yuan, W., Maignan, F., Wu, J., Piao, S., Wang, Y.-P., Wigneron, J.-P., Fan, L., Gentine, P., Yang, X., Gong, F., Liu, H., Wang, C., Tang, X., Yang, H., Ye, Q., He, B., Shang, J., and Su, Y.: Tropical tall forests are more sensitive and vulnerable to drought than short forests, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 1583–1595, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16017, 2021.
Liu, Y., Schwalm, C. R., Samuels-Crow, K. E., and Ogle, K.: Ecological memory of daily carbon exchange across the globe and its importance in drylands, Ecol. Lett., 22, 1806–1816, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13363, 2019.
Liu, Y. Y., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., de Jeu, R. A. M., Canadell, J. G., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., and Wang, G.: Recent reversal in loss of global terrestrial biomass, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 470–474, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2581, 2015.
Liu, Z., Chen, L., Smith, N. G., Yuan, W., Chen, X., Zhou, G., Alam, S. A., Lin, K., Zhao, T., Zhou, P., Chu, C., Ma, H., and Liu, J.: Global divergent responses of primary productivity to water, energy, and CO2, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 124044, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab57c5, 2019.
LP DAAC: MCD12Q1, LP DAAC [data set], https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mcd12q1v006/, last access: 15 November 2022.
Maherali, H., Pockman, W. T., and Jackson, R. B.: Adaptive Variation in the Vulnerability of Woody Plants to Xylem Cavitation, Ecology, 85, 2184–2199, https://doi.org/10.1890/02-0538, 2004.
Matheny, A. M., Bohrer, G., Garrity, S. R., Morin, T. H., Howard, C. J., and Vogel, C. S.: Observations of stem water storage in trees of opposing hydraulic strategies, Ecosphere, 6, 165, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00170.1, 2015.
McDowell, N., Pockman, W. T., Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N., Kolb, T., Plaut, J., Sperry, J., West, A., Williams, D. G., and Yepez, E. A.: Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?, New Phytol., 178, 719–739, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x, 2008.
McDowell, N. G. and Allen, C. D.: Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 669–672, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2641, 2015.
MPI-BGC: MPI-BGC Data Portal, https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/projects/Home.php, last access: 15 November 2022.
Mueller, N. D., Butler, E. E., McKinnon, K. A., Rhines, A., Tingley, M., Holbrook, N. M., and Huybers, P.: Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 317–322, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2825, 2016.
Nepstad, D. C., Tohver, I. M., Ray, D., Moutinho, P., and Cardinot, G.: Mortality of Large Trees and Lianas Following Experimental Drought in an Amazon Forest, Ecology, 88, 2259–2269, https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1046.1, 2007.
Nunes, M. H., Camargo, J. L. C., Vincent, G., Calders, K., Oliveira, R. S., Huete, A., Mendes de Moura, Y., Nelson, B., Smith, M. N., Stark, S. C., and Maeda, E. E.: Forest fragmentation impacts the seasonality of Amazonian evergreen canopies, Nat. Commun., 13, 917, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28490-7, 2022.
O, S., Bastos, A., Reichstein, M., Li, W., Denissen, J., Graefen, H., and Orth, R.: The Role of Climate and Vegetation in Regulating Drought–Heat Extremes, J. Climate, 35, 5677–5685, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0675.1, 2022.
Phillips, O. L., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Lewis, S. L., Fisher, J. B., Lloyd, J., López-González, G., Malhi, Y., Monteagudo, A., Peacock, J., Quesada, C. A., van der Heijden, G., Almeida, S., Amaral, I., Arroyo, L., Aymard, G., Baker, T. R., Bánki, O., Blanc, L., Bonal, D., Brando, P., Chave, J., de Oliveira, Á. C. A., Cardozo, N. D., Czimczik, C. I., Feldpausch, T. R., Freitas, M. A., Gloor, E., Higuchi, N., Jiménez, E., Lloyd, G., Meir, P., Mendoza, C., Morel, A., Neill, D. A., Nepstad, D., Patiño, S., Peñuela, M. C., Prieto, A., Ramírez, F., Schwarz, M., Silva, J., Silveira, M., Thomas, A. S., Steege, H. ter, Stropp, J., Vásquez, R., Zelazowski, P., Dávila, E. A., Andelman, S., Andrade, A., Chao, K.-J., Erwin, T., Di Fiore, A., C., E. H., Keeling, H., Killeen, T. J., Laurance, W. F., Cruz, A. P., Pitman, N. C. A., Vargas, P. N., Ramírez-Angulo, H., Rudas, A., Salamão, R., Silva, N., Terborgh, J., and Torres-Lezama, A.: Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest, Science, 323, 1344–1347, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1164033, 2009.
Piao, S., Fang, J., and He, J.: Variations in Vegetation Net Primary Production in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China, from 1982 to 1999, Climatic Change, 74, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-6339-8, 2006.
Piao, S., Liu, Z., Wang, T., Peng, S., Ciais, P., Huang, M., Ahlstrom, A., Burkhart, J. F., Chevallier, F., Janssens, I. A., Jeong, S.-J., Lin, X., Mao, J., Miller, J., Mohammat, A., Myneni, R. B., Peñuelas, J., Shi, X., Stohl, A., Yao, Y., Zhu, Z., and Tans, P. P.: Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 359–363, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3277, 2017.
Poulter, B., Frank, D., Ciais, P., Myneni, R. B., Andela, N., Bi, J., Broquet, G., Canadell, J. G., Chevallier, F., Liu, Y. Y., Running, S. W., Sitch, S., and van der Werf, G. R.: Contribution of semi-arid ecosystems to interannual variability of the global carbon cycle, Nature, 509, 600–603, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13376, 2014.
Poulter, B., MacBean, N., Hartley, A., Khlystova, I., Arino, O., Betts, R., Bontemps, S., Boettcher, M., Brockmann, C., Defourny, P., Hagemann, S., Herold, M., Kirches, G., Lamarche, C., Lederer, D., Ottlé, C., Peters, M., and Peylin, P.: Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015.
Qin, Y., Xiao, X., Wigneron, J.-P., Ciais, P., Brandt, M., Fan, L., Li, X., Crowell, S., Wu, X., Doughty, R., Zhang, Y., Liu, F., Sitch, S., and Moore, B.: Carbon loss from forest degradation exceeds that from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 442–448, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01026-5, 2021.
Reichstein, M., Bahn, M., Ciais, P., Frank, D., Mahecha, M. D., Seneviratne, S. I., Zscheischler, J., Beer, C., Buchmann, N., Frank, D. C., Papale, D., Rammig, A., Smith, P., Thonicke, K., van der Velde, M., Vicca, S., Walz, A., and Wattenbach, M.: Climate extremes and the carbon cycle, Nature, 500, 287–295, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350, 2013.
Rodríguez-Fernández, N. J., Mialon, A., Mermoz, S., Bouvet, A., Richaume, P., Al Bitar, A., Al-Yaari, A., Brandt, M., Kaminski, T., Le Toan, T., Kerr, Y. H., and Wigneron, J.-P.: An evaluation of SMOS L-band vegetation optical depth (L-VOD) data sets: high sensitivity of L-VOD to above-ground biomass in Africa, Biogeosciences, 15, 4627–4645, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4627-2018, 2018.
Roux, R. L., Wagner, F., Blanc, L., Betbeder, J., Gond, V., Dessard, H., Funatzu, B., Bourgoin, C., Cornu, G., Herault, B., Montfort, F., Sist, P., Begue, A., Dubreuil, V., Laurent, F., Messner, F., Hasan, A. F., and Arvor, D.: How wildfires increase sensitivity of Amazon forests to droughts, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 044031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5b3d, 2022.
Sanczuk, P., De Pauw, K., De Lombaerde, E., Luoto, M., Meeussen, C., Govaert, S., Vanneste, T., Depauw, L., Brunet, J., Cousins, S. A. O., Gasperini, C., Hedwall, P.-O., Iacopetti, G., Lenoir, J., Plue, J., Selvi, F., Spicher, F., Uria-Diez, J., Verheyen, K., Vangansbeke, P., and De Frenne, P.: Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 840–847, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y, 2023.
Schwalm, C. R., Williams, C. A., Schaefer, K., Baldocchi, D., Black, T. A., Goldstein, A. H., Law, B. E., Oechel, W. C., Paw U, K. T., and Scott, R. L.: Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nat. Geosci., 5, 551–556, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1529, 2012.
Schwalm, C. R., Anderegg, W. R. L., Michalak, A. M., Fisher, J. B., Biondi, F., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K., Shaw, J. D., Wolf, A., Huntzinger, D. N., Schaefer, K., Cook, R., Wei, Y., Fang, Y., Hayes, D., Huang, M., Jain, A., and Tian, H.: Global patterns of drought recovery, Nature, 548, 202–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23021, 2017.
Sherwood, S. C., Dixit, V., and Salomez, C.: The global warming potential of near-surface emitted water vapour, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 104006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae018, 2018.
Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Slade, R., van Diemen, R., Haughey, E., Malley, J., Pathak, M., and Portugal Pereira, J.: Technical Summary, 2019, in: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 37–74, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988.002, 2022.
Siebert, S., Henrich, V., Frenken, K., and Burke, J.: Update of the digital global map of irrigation areas to version 5, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität, Bonn, Germany and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.2660.6728, 2013.
Silva Junior, C. H. L., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Anderson, L. O., Fonseca, M. G., Shimabukuro, Y. E., Vancutsem, C., Achard, F., Beuchle, R., Numata, I., Silva, C. A., Maeda, E. E., Longo, M., and Saatchi, S. S.: Persistent collapse of biomass in Amazonian forest edges following deforestation leads to unaccounted carbon losses, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz8360, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz8360, 2020.
Slette, I. J., Post, A. K., Awad, M., Even, T., Punzalan, A., Williams, S., Smith, M. D., and Knapp, A. K.: How ecologists define drought, and why we should do better, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 3193–3200, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14747, 2019.
Teuling, A. J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stöckli, R., Reichstein, M., Moors, E., Ciais, P., Luyssaert, S., van den Hurk, B., Ammann, C., Bernhofer, C., Dellwik, E., Gianelle, D., Gielen, B., Grünwald, T., Klumpp, K., Montagnani, L., Moureaux, C., Sottocornola, M., and Wohlfahrt, G.: Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 3, 722–727, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo950, 2010.
Thoning, K. W., Tans, P. P., and Komhyr, W. D.: Atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory: 2. Analysis of the NOAA GMCC data, 1974–1985, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 94, 8549–8565, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD06p08549, 1989.
Tian, F., Brandt, M., Liu, Y. Y., Rasmussen, K., and Fensholt, R.: Mapping gains and losses in woody vegetation across global tropical drylands, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 1748–1760, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13464, 2017.
Tian, F., Wigneron, J.-P., Ciais, P., Chave, J., Ogée, J., Peñuelas, J., Ræbild, A., Domec, J.-C., Tong, X., Brandt, M., Mialon, A., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Tagesson, T., Al-Yaari, A., Kerr, Y., Chen, C., Myneni, R. B., Zhang, W., Ardö, J., and Fensholt, R.: Coupling of ecosystem-scale plant water storage and leaf phenology observed by satellite, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 2, 1428–1435, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0630-3, 2018.
Walther, S., Duveiller, G., Jung, M., Guanter, L., Cescatti, A., and Camps-Valls, G.: Satellite Observations of the Contrasting Response of Trees and Grasses to Variations in Water Availability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1429–1440, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080535, 2019.
Wigneron, J.-P., Fan, L., Ciais, P., Bastos, A., Brandt, M., Chave, J., Saatchi, S., Baccini, A., and Fensholt, R.: Tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event, Sci. Adv., 6, eaay4603, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay4603, 2020.
Wigneron, J.-P., Li, X., Frappart, F., Fan, L., Al-Yaari, A., De Lannoy, G., Liu, X., Wang, M., Le Masson, E., and Moisy, C.: SMOS-IC data record of soil moisture and L-VOD: Historical development, applications and perspectives, Remote Sens. Environ., 254, 112238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.112238, 2021.
Wolf, J., Asch, J., Tian, F., Georgiou, K., and Ahlström, A.: Canopy responses of Swedish primary and secondary forests to the 2018 drought, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 064044, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd6a8, 2023.
Wu, C., Peng, J., Ciais, P., Peñuelas, J., Wang, H., Beguería, S., Andrew Black, T., Jassal, R. S., Zhang, X., Yuan, W., Liang, E., Wang, X., Hua, H., Liu, R., Ju, W., Fu, Y. H., and Ge, Q.: Increased drought effects on the phenology of autumn leaf senescence, Nat. Clim. Change., 12, 943–949, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01464-9, 2022.
Xiao, C., Zaehle, S., Yang, H., Wigneron, J.-P., Schmullius, C., and Bastos, A.: Land cover and management effects of ecosystem resistance to drought stress, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8434669, 2023.
Xu, L., Saatchi, S. S., Yang, Y., Yu, Y., Pongratz, J., Bloom, A. A., Bowman, K., Worden, J., Liu, J., Yin, Y., Domke, G., McRoberts, R. E., Woodall, C., Nabuurs, G.-J., de-Miguel, S., Keller, M., Harris, N., Maxwell, S., and Schimel, D.: Changes in global terrestrial live biomass over the 21st century, Sci. Adv., 7, eabe9829, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe9829, 2021.
Yang, H., Ciais, P., Frappart, F., Li, X., Brandt, M., Fensholt, R., Fan, L., Saatchi, S., Besnard, S., Deng, Z., Bowring, S., and Wigneron, J.-P.: Global increase in biomass carbon stock dominated by growth of northern young forests over past decade, Nat. Geosci., 16, 886–892, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01274-4, 2023.
Yao, Y., Liu, Y., Zhou, S., Song, J., and Fu, B.: Soil moisture determines the recovery time of ecosystems from drought, Global Change Biol., 29, 3562–3574, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16620, 2023.
Zamora-Pereira, J. C., Yousefpour, R., Cailleret, M., Bugmann, H., and Hanewinkel, M.: Magnitude and timing of density reduction are key for the resilience to severe drought in conifer-broadleaf mixed forests in Central Europe, Ann. For. Sci., 78, 68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-021-01085-w, 2021.
Zeng, Y., Hao, D., Huete, A., Dechant, B., Berry, J., Chen, J. M., Joiner, J., Frankenberg, C., Bond-Lamberty, B., Ryu, Y., Xiao, J., Asrar, G. R., and Chen, M.: Optical vegetation indices for monitoring terrestrial ecosystems globally, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00298-5, 2022.
Zhang, F., Quan, Q., Ma, F., Tian, D., Hoover, D. L., Zhou, Q., and Niu, S.: When does extreme drought elicit extreme ecological responses?, J. Ecol., 107, 2553–2563, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13226, 2019.
Zhang, Y., Xiao, X., Zhou, S., Ciais, P., McCarthy, H., and Luo, Y.: Canopy and physiological controls of GPP during drought and heat wave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3325–3333, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068501, 2016.
Zhu, J., Zhang, M., Zhang, Y., Zeng, X., and Xiao, X.: Response of Tropical Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to the Super El Niño Event in 2015, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 123, 3193–3203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JG004571, 2018.
Zscheischler, J., Reichstein, M., Harmeling, S., Rammig, A., Tomelleri, E., and Mahecha, M. D.: Extreme events in gross primary production: a characterization across continents, Biogeosciences, 11, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, 2014.
Editorial statement
This study provides a global synthesis of vegetation resistance to drought and heat, including the roles of forest management and crop irrigation. This uniquely complete overview is valuable to further our broader understanding of vegetation and ecosystem resilience to climatic stressors.
This study provides a global synthesis of vegetation resistance to drought and heat, including...
Short summary
Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods.
Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint