Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023
ESD Ideas
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14 Nov 2023
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 14 Nov 2023

ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve

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Cited articles

Duffey, A. and Mallett, R.: alistairduffey/AA_contrib_to_GMST: v1.1 (v1.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8386907, 2023. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/GMD-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Goosse, H., Kay, J. E., Armour, K. C., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Chepfer, H., Docquier, D., Jonko, A., Kushner, P. J., Lecomte, O., Massonnet, F., Park, H. S., Pithan, F., Svensson, G., and Vancoppenolle, M.: Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0, 2018. a
Graham, L. P., Andréasson, J., and Carlsson, B.: Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods – a case study on the Lule River basin, Climatic Change, 81, 293–307, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9215-2, 2007. a
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: RCP8.5 is a problematic scenario for near-term emissions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 27791–27792, 2020. a
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This work links two very actual scientific topics, which are also highly relevant for public understanding of climate change. First, timelines to crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds under future emissions scenarios; second, the rapid warming and profound changes under way in the Arctic region.
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The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.
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