Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
ESD Ideas
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14 Nov 2023
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 14 Nov 2023

ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve

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Latest update: 02 Nov 2025
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This work links two very actual scientific topics, which are also highly relevant for public understanding of climate change. First, timelines to crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds under future emissions scenarios; second, the rapid warming and profound changes under way in the Arctic region.
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Short summary
The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.
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