Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
Special issue:
ESD Ideas
 | Highlight paper
14 Nov 2023
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 14 Nov 2023

ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve

Data sets

An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set ( C. P. Morice, J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, J. P. Winn, E. Hogan, R. E. Killick, R. J. H. Dunn, T. J. Osborn, P. D. Jones, and I. R. Simpson

Model code and software

alistairduffey/AA_contrib_to_GMST: v1.1 (v1.1) Alistair Duffey and Robbie Mallett

Chief editor
This work links two very actual scientific topics, which are also highly relevant for public understanding of climate change. First, timelines to crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds under future emissions scenarios; second, the rapid warming and profound changes under way in the Arctic region.
Short summary
The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.
Special issue
Final-revised paper