Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
ESD Ideas
 | Highlight paper
 | 
18 Oct 2023
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 18 Oct 2023

ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world

Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh

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Everyday weather in a warmer world
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Hot extremes following net-zero CO2 emissions in UKESM: physical drivers and role of vegetation
Andrea Rivosecchi, Andrea Dittus, Ed Hawkins, Reinhard Schiemann, and Erich Fischer
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From Paper to Proof: Revealing Congo Basin Warming Through Rescued Climate Archives
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2107,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2107, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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MeteoSaver v1.0: a machine-learning based software for the transcription of historical weather data
Derrick Muheki, Bas Vercruysse, Krishna Kumar Thirukokaranam Chandrasekar, Christophe Verbruggen, Julie M. Birkholz, Koen Hufkens, Hans Verbeeck, Pascal Boeckx, Seppe Lampe, Ed Hawkins, Peter Thorne, Dominique Kankonde Ntumba, Olivier Kapalay Moulasa, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3213–3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3213-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3213-2026, 2026
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Atlantic Multidecadal Variability since 1850 is largely externally forced
Yongyao Liang, Ed Hawkins, Gerard McCarthy, and Peter Thorne
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Cited articles

Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010. 
Compo, G. P. and Sardeshmukh, P. D.: Oceanic influences on recent continental warming, Clim. Dynam., 32, 333–342, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9, 2009. 
Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Yiou, P., and Messori, G.: A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021, Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022. 
Ginesta, M., Yiou, P., Messori, G., and Faranda, D.: A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020, Clim. Dynam., 61, 229–253, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x, 2023. 
Hawkins, E.: Ulysses Storm Data v2.0, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7838018, 2023. 
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Editorial statement
This paper proposes a novel method for translating past observed extreme weather events into current or future climates. It illustrates this with the analysis of an extreme windstorm that occurred in 1903. The latter storm would likely be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
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Short summary
Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing. We propose a new approach to examine how the consequences of a particular weather pattern have been made worse by climate change, using an example of a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903. When this storm is translated into a warmer world, it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
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