Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
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- Final revised paper (published on 18 Oct 2023)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 11 Apr 2023)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-665', Joseph Barsugli, 11 Apr 2023
- AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Ed Hawkins, 10 Jun 2023
- AC4: 'Additional note', Ed Hawkins, 10 Jun 2023
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-665', Davide Faranda, 13 Apr 2023
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Ed Hawkins, 10 Jun 2023
- AC4: 'Additional note', Ed Hawkins, 10 Jun 2023
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-665', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 May 2023
- AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Ed Hawkins, 10 Jun 2023
- AC4: 'Additional note', Ed Hawkins, 10 Jun 2023
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (19 Jun 2023) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Ed Hawkins on behalf of the Authors (10 Aug 2023)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Aug 2023) by Gabriele Messori
RR by Davide Faranda (31 Aug 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Sep 2023)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (18 Sep 2023) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Ed Hawkins on behalf of the Authors (20 Sep 2023)
Author's response
Manuscript
I found this paper very intriguing and potentially a valuable addition to attributiion studies. I have a couple of comments regarding the statement:
"Boundary conditions of SSTs and sea ice concentration are prescribed in 20CRv3, and so counter-factual versions of extreme events can be generated by perturbing the SST boundary conditions and assimilating the same pressure observations. By using 20CRv3 no other perturbations are required, unlike if this approach used a reanalysis that assimilated other types of observation"
Is the reasoning that no other perturbations are required due to the fact that a) atmospheric mass does not change (much) with time or with global warming, and b) a sizeable amount of climate change is mediated by oceanic temperature and concomitant humidity changes rather than by direct radiative forcing (as two of the authors have previously demonstrated). However I think that changing the atmospheric composition could also lead to additional radiative forcing over land over the 6 month spin-up time that would have an effect, albeit rather small on this storm. Perhaps more significant would be aerosol changes, not only for their radiative effect, but also for their effect on precipitation.
I also have a question about how surface winds over areas of dense observations would change using this methodology. Surface wind speed is relatively strongly constrained by pressure gradients and boundary layer stability. It would seem that constraining the surface pressure field with 1903 pressure observations would yield similar surface winds no matter the changes aloft or in SSTs at least in areas of denser observations. This would be consistent with the relatively small changes in wind speeds over land seen in the results. Perhaps there is something about this method, or about some unstated assumptions that I do not understand.