Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
ESD Ideas
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18 Oct 2023
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 18 Oct 2023

ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world

Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh

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Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
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This paper proposes a novel method for translating past observed extreme weather events into current or future climates. It illustrates this with the analysis of an extreme windstorm that occurred in 1903. The latter storm would likely be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
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Short summary
Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing. We propose a new approach to examine how the consequences of a particular weather pattern have been made worse by climate change, using an example of a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903. When this storm is translated into a warmer world, it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
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