Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Gilbert P. Compo
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USA
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USA
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USA
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Total article views: 7,425 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 7,425 with geography defined
and 0 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,690 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,690 with geography defined
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Performance of a 179-year high-resolution climate simulation of Southern Alaska S. Königseder et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05612-x
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather T. Kelder et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
- The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution F. Feser & T. Shepherd https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6
- The perfect storm: human influence on the loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones N. Leach et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae886a
- A severe winter storm record for southwestern Australia, 1830–2024 J. Gergis et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08187-z
- Severe convective weather in Italy: Current understanding and Research Priorities in the TIM campaign M. Miglietta et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3395-2026
- Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making J. Sillmann et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
- Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate J. Øelund et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026
- Circulation analogues cannot identify changes in rainfall extremes V. Thompson https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a6
- Regional and weather-type modulation of global warming–driven intensification of Italian precipitation extremes from multi-year storyline simulations M. Burderi et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea
- Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes W. Seviour et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1405-2026
- A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events G. Lenderink et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781
- Approaches, challenges and applications of climate change impact attribution S. Undorf et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00798-8
- Lessons learnt from a real-time attribution and contextualisation trial in a National Meteorological and Hydrological Service P. Hope et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad7da8
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate J. Boé et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785
- Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts S. Ermis et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200
- How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines M. Athanase et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Performance of a 179-year high-resolution climate simulation of Southern Alaska S. Königseder et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05612-x
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather T. Kelder et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
- The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution F. Feser & T. Shepherd https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6
- The perfect storm: human influence on the loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones N. Leach et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae886a
- A severe winter storm record for southwestern Australia, 1830–2024 J. Gergis et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08187-z
- Severe convective weather in Italy: Current understanding and Research Priorities in the TIM campaign M. Miglietta et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3395-2026
- Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making J. Sillmann et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
- Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate J. Øelund et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026
- Circulation analogues cannot identify changes in rainfall extremes V. Thompson https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a6
- Regional and weather-type modulation of global warming–driven intensification of Italian precipitation extremes from multi-year storyline simulations M. Burderi et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea
- Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes W. Seviour et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1405-2026
- A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events G. Lenderink et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781
- Approaches, challenges and applications of climate change impact attribution S. Undorf et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00798-8
- Lessons learnt from a real-time attribution and contextualisation trial in a National Meteorological and Hydrological Service P. Hope et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad7da8
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate J. Boé et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785
- Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts S. Ermis et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200
- How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines M. Athanase et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
This paper proposes a novel method for translating past observed extreme weather events into current or future climates. It illustrates this with the analysis of an extreme windstorm that occurred in 1903. The latter storm would likely be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
This paper proposes a novel method for translating past observed extreme weather events into...
Short summary
Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing. We propose a new approach to examine how the consequences of a particular weather pattern have been made worse by climate change, using an example of a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903. When this storm is translated into a warmer world, it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing....
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