Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
Research article
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04 Feb 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Feb 2021

A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori

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Cited articles

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Alpert, P., Osetinsky, I., Ziv, B., and Shafir, H.: A new seasons' definition based on the classified daily synoptic systems, an example for the Eastern Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1013–1021, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1037, 2004b. 
Baldi, M., Dalu, G., Marrachi, G., Pasqui, M., and Cesarone, F.: Heat waves in the Mediterranean: A local feature or a larger-scale effect?, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1477–1488, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1389, 2006. 
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Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
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