Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, 2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, 2021

Research article 04 Feb 2021

Research article | 04 Feb 2021

A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Assaf Hochman et al.

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Preprint under review for ESD
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Cited articles

Aguilar, E., Auer, I., Brunet, M., Peterson, T. C., and Wieringa, J.: Guide-lines on climate metadata and homogenization, WCDMP-No. 53, WMO-TDNo. 1186, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2003. 
Alpert, P., Abramsky, R., and Neeman, B. U.: The prevailing summer synoptic system in Israel – Subtropical High, not Persian Trough, Israel J. Earth Sci., 39, 93–102, 1990. 
Alpert, P., Osetinsky, I., Ziv, B., and Shafir, H.: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems: Application to the Eastern Mediterranean climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1001–1011,, 2004a. 
Alpert, P., Osetinsky, I., Ziv, B., and Shafir, H.: A new seasons' definition based on the classified daily synoptic systems, an example for the Eastern Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1013–1021,, 2004b. 
Baldi, M., Dalu, G., Marrachi, G., Pasqui, M., and Cesarone, F.: Heat waves in the Mediterranean: A local feature or a larger-scale effect?, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1477–1488,, 2006. 
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Final-revised paper