Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

Research article 04 Feb 2021

Research article | 04 Feb 2021

A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Assaf Hochman et al.

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Preprint under review for ESD
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Cited articles

Aguilar, E., Auer, I., Brunet, M., Peterson, T. C., and Wieringa, J.: Guide-lines on climate metadata and homogenization, WCDMP-No. 53, WMO-TDNo. 1186, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2003. 
Alpert, P., Abramsky, R., and Neeman, B. U.: The prevailing summer synoptic system in Israel – Subtropical High, not Persian Trough, Israel J. Earth Sci., 39, 93–102, 1990. 
Alpert, P., Osetinsky, I., Ziv, B., and Shafir, H.: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems: Application to the Eastern Mediterranean climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1001–1011, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1036, 2004a. 
Alpert, P., Osetinsky, I., Ziv, B., and Shafir, H.: A new seasons' definition based on the classified daily synoptic systems, an example for the Eastern Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1013–1021, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1037, 2004b. 
Baldi, M., Dalu, G., Marrachi, G., Pasqui, M., and Cesarone, F.: Heat waves in the Mediterranean: A local feature or a larger-scale effect?, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1477–1488, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1389, 2006. 
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
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