Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Research article
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04 Feb 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Feb 2021

A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori

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Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
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