Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
04 Feb 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 04 Feb 2021
| 04 Feb 2021
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Department of Tropospheric Research, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Sebastian Scher
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Julian Quinting
Department of Tropospheric Research, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Department of Tropospheric Research, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Gabriele Messori
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Department of Earth Sciences and Centre of Natural Hazards and
Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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- Unraveling sub-seasonal precipitation variability in the Middle East via Indian Ocean sea surface temperature A. Hochman et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53677-x
- Olive production in the 21st century will be threatened by water stress and declining solar activity D. Kaniewski et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02256-7
- Estimating the local predictability of heatwaves in south China using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06757-z
- Greater Climate Sensitivity and Variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth A. Hochman et al. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac866f
- Lagrangian Identification of Bulgaria’s Moisture Sources: A Key to Understanding Drought Dynamics R. Sorí et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00542-6
- Markov-switching models for heat wave detection and projection in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy G. Di Credico et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-025-00658-6
- Do Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes Physically Exist? A. Hochman et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095574
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- The sources of extreme precipitation predictability; the case of the ‘Wet’ Red Sea Trough A. Hochman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100564
- Heatwaves Over the Indian Subcontinent: Mechanisms, Variability and Sources P. Gupta et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00669-0
- High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East summer M. Latt et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03951-2
- Persistent warm and dry extremes over the eastern Mediterranean during winter: The role of North Atlantic blocking and central Mediterranean cyclones S. Berkovic & S. Raveh‐Rubin https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4308
- Two different perspectives on heatwaves within the Lagrangian framework A. Mayer & V. Wirth https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4885
- Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean A. Hochman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022
- Intrinsic predictability of heavy precipitation influenced by atmospheric rivers in the Western Iberian Peninsula E. Bartfeld et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100895
- A multiscale approach to statistical downscaling of daily precipitation: Israel as a test case D. Sandler et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8315
- Analysis of long‐term trends and variations in extreme high air temperatures in May over Turkey and a record‐breaking heatwave event of May 2020 E. Erlat et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7821
- More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean M. Wedler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161883
- Air–Sea Interactions and Biogeochemical Responses to Medicane Daniel B. Jangir & E. Strobach https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4271-2026
- Understanding summer wind systems over the eastern Mediterranean in a high‐resolution climate simulation M. Latt et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7695
- Predictability of temperature anomalies in Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean in June 2024 based on seasonal forecasts of the INM RAS Earth system model V. Bragina et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108700
- Process-based evaluation of Eastern Mediterranean heatwave development in the CMIP6 models A. Klif et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100918
- Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa G. Zittis et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7
- Correcting biases in tropical cyclone intensities in low-resolution datasets using dynamical systems metrics D. Faranda et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06794-8
- Synergistic effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on Middle Eastern subseasonal precipitation variability and predictability A. Hochman & H. Gildor https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4903
- Exploring the Tropical Pacific Manifold in Models and Observations F. Falasca & A. Bracco https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.12.021054
- Evaluation of Mei-yu heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan by a cloud-resolving model for three seasons of 2012–2014 C. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022
- Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems F. Pons et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0152370
- Local summer temperature dynamics: Bayesian Markov-switching to forecast annual frequency and duration of heat waves V. Gioia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.04.007
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Sep 2026
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we...
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