A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Hochman, Assaf; Scher, Sebastian; Quinting, Julian; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Messori, Gabriele

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

04 Feb 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 04 Feb 2021

A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean

Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori

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Final revised paper (published on 04 Feb 2021)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 08 Jul 2020)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Aug 2020
- AC1: 'Quick point by point response to the Reviewer', Assaf Hochman, 04 Nov 2020
RC2: 'Referee comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Oct 2020
- AC2: 'Quick point by point response to the Reviewer', Assaf Hochman, 04 Nov 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (18 Nov 2020) by Sagnik Dey

AR by Assaf Hochman on behalf of the Authors (01 Dec 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (17 Dec 2020) by Sagnik Dey

AR by Assaf Hochman on behalf of the Authors (18 Dec 2020)

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Short summary

Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.