Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020

Research article 21 Apr 2020

Research article | 21 Apr 2020

Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse

James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves

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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (16 Sep 2019) by Michel Crucifix
AR by James Annan on behalf of the Authors (24 Oct 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Nov 2019) by Michel Crucifix
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (14 Feb 2020) by Michel Crucifix
AR by James Annan on behalf of the Authors (21 Feb 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (01 Mar 2020) by Michel Crucifix
AR by James Annan on behalf of the Authors (27 Mar 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
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