Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Research article
 | 
21 Apr 2020
Research article |  | 21 Apr 2020

Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse

James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves

Viewed

Total article views: 4,885 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
3,799 937 149 4,885 185 146 188
  • HTML: 3,799
  • PDF: 937
  • XML: 149
  • Total: 4,885
  • Supplement: 185
  • BibTeX: 146
  • EndNote: 188
Views and downloads (calculated since 13 Jun 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 13 Jun 2019)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 4,885 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 4,489 with geography defined and 396 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 24 Jan 2026
Download
Short summary
We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint