Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
Research article
 | 
21 Apr 2020
Research article |  | 21 Apr 2020

Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse

James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves

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Short summary
We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
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