Most downloaded

17 Jul 2025
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025 | 14,779 views
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08 Oct 2025
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Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025 | 13,752 views
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22 Jul 2025
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review
Florian Ulrich Jehn, John-Oliver Engler, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Magdalena Wache, Ekaterina Ilin, Laura Cook, Lalitha S. Sundaram, Frederic Hanusch, and Luke Kemp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1053–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025, 2025 | 9,276 views
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10 Jul 2025
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements
Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025 | 8,821 views
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09 Sep 2025
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Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025 | 8,254 views
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11 Jul 2025
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Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics
Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025 | 8,188 views
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15 Jul 2025
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025 | 7,889 views
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15 Sep 2025
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ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025 | 7,807 views
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14 Nov 2025
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2003–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2003-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2003-2025, 2025 | 6,966 views
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20 Nov 2025
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Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark S. Williamson, and Peter Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2087–2100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025, 2025 | 6,818 views
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11 Jun 2025
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025 | 6,747 views
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30 Jul 2025
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025 | 6,554 views
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04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025 | 6,530 views
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30 Sep 2025
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Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025 | 6,527 views
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04 Aug 2025
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025 | 6,469 views
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16 Oct 2025
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AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025 | 6,320 views
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02 Oct 2025
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Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025 | 6,320 views
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20 Nov 2025
A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2063–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, 2025 | 5,911 views
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27 Jun 2025
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025 | 5,829 views
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21 Oct 2025
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1833–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025, 2025 | 5,824 views
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01 Aug 2025
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1221–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025, 2025 | 5,694 views
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04 Feb 2026
Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 167–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026, 2026 | 5,688 views
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10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025 | 5,669 views
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07 Jan 2026
Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, 2026 | 5,667 views
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16 Jan 2026
A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 107–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026, 2026 | 5,650 views
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17 Mar 2026
Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth's climate sensitivity
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 303–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026, 2026 | 5,623 views
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26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025 | 5,562 views
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22 Dec 2025
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Bridging science and practice on multi-hazard risk drivers: stakeholder insights from five pilot studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2295–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025, 2025 | 5,453 views
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08 Oct 2025
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1605–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025, 2025 | 5,290 views
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18 Nov 2025
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025 | 5,279 views
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14 Jan 2026
Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections
Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 81–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026, 2026 | 5,218 views
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29 Oct 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1887–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025, 2025 | 5,175 views
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22 Oct 2025
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere
Katherine Power, Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, and Qiong Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1845–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025, 2025 | 5,169 views
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01 Aug 2025
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia
Chayan Roychoudhury, Cenlin He, Rajesh Kumar, and Avelino F. Arellano Jr.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1237–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025, 2025 | 5,070 views
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02 Jun 2025
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model
Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 729–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025, 2025 | 5,005 views
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10 Apr 2026
Energetics of monsoons and deserts: role of surface albedo vs water vapor feedback
Chetankumar Jalihal and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-319-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-319-2026, 2026 | 4,967 views
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27 Oct 2025
“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone
Fenna Blomsma, Mila K.-C. F. Ong, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1865–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025, 2025 | 4,964 views
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19 Aug 2025
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, 2025 | 4,951 views
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05 Dec 2025
Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers
Alba Santos-Espeso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Pablo Ortega, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Markus G. Donat, Margarida Samso Cabré, and Saskia Loosveldt Tomas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025, 2025 | 4,913 views
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05 Mar 2026
Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026, 2026 | 4,901 views
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18 Jul 2025
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025 | 4,886 views
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26 Feb 2026
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Challenges and opportunities for understanding societal impacts of climate extremes
Gabriele Messori, Emily Boyd, Joakim Nivre, and Elena Raffetti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 199–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-199-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-199-2026, 2026 | 4,883 views
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16 Oct 2025
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025 | 4,829 views
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15 Apr 2026
A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 333–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026, 2026 | 4,797 views
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21 Nov 2025
Evaluating biogeophysical sensitivities to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models using observational constraints
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2137–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, 2025 | 4,773 views
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19 Nov 2025
Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025, 2025 | 4,746 views
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13 Aug 2025
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025 | 4,692 views
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05 Nov 2025
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Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Dmitry Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1989–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025, 2025 | 4,676 views
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05 Mar 2026
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026, 2026 | 4,650 views
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21 May 2025
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics
Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025, 2025 | 4,611 views
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