This paper represents a state-of-the-art review of tipping points in the physical climate system. It should be of great value and use to inform the community about the current status of research on tipping points and global climate change.

This paper provides important insights on possible abrupt shifts and state transitions under future climate change. The comprehensive catalogue presented in the paper spans changes in multiple components of the Earth system. These can have major impacts on both the climate system and other dependent systems, from ecosystems to society and the economy. The paper also makes the case for the possibility of Strong Nonlinear Surprises happening earlier than previously anticipated.

This study challenges the conventional wisdom that the commitment to an Earth System tipping point occurs as soon as a critical threshold is crossed. The authors show that the number of elements that would undergo tipping is severely reduced if the duration of exceedance of the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C threshold can be kept below a century. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that all tipping elements would be avoided if global warming over 1.5 °C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming is kept below 2.5 °C. Consequently, the duration of exceedance of tipping thresholds matters.

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are widely used in climate science to quantify uncertainty. Yet, assembling an appropriate MME is fraught with challenges. Ensembles that are incorrectly assembled can do more harm than good. This article provides practical suggestions on developing MMEs. It will be a valuable resource for climate scientists wishing to use MMEs to address a wide range of questions related to climate and climate change.

The manuscript's findings of improved sea-ice cover accuracy and the quickness of future declines is of interest to a general audience. In addition, the complexity of the relationship between deep water formation and the over-all AMOC strength is an important aspect of the science that should be understood by a general audience when AMOC declines and its associated climate impact is discussed.

Climate models are some of our best tools for understanding future changes, especially how likely it is that we accomplish the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep warming to well below 2.0°C. Recent updates to radiative forcing estimates from greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols result in an increase in projected warming, substantially reducing the likelihood that we will meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

This paper finds that hysteresis and partial irreversibility in permafrost thawing result in a potentially large increase in cumulative carbon emissions from permafrost. This highlights the risks that come with overshoot scenarios, and the processes that may counteract the expected decrease in temperatures in the later part of such scenarios.

This study identifies a potential instability in the global carbon cycle driven by feedbacks between climate, weathering, and ocean chemistry, suggesting abrupt shifts under extreme perturbations. Although the conditions required are severe, the findings reveal that Earth’s carbon system may have multiple stable states, with implications for climate tipping points. The work offers a crucial theoretical framework for understanding past and future carbon cycle disruptions, making it highly relevant to geoscientific and climate research.

This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates of 21st century ocean and atmospheric warming than previously assessed, calling into question methods using past warming to constrain future warming.

While there are many dystopian articles on post-catastrophic scenarios, rigorous, science-based analysis are limited. This paper will be a significant addition to the limited literature in this area and should have broader public and media interests.

This paper offers the first cross-regional synthesis of stakeholder perspectives on multi-hazard risk drivers across Europe, providing empirically grounded insights into how hazard interactions, vulnerability dynamics and disaster risk reduction measures evolve over time. By integrating qualitative methods with multi-risk governance analysis, it promotes context-sensitive and actionable disaster risk knowledge. Its findings are highly relevant to the geosciences community working on risk modeling and hazard interactions and are also of great interest for practitioners, policymakers and media focusing on disaster risk governance, climate adaptation, and societal resilience.

This paper deals with the effects of solar geoengineering that aims to mitigate climate change by the injection of aerosols in the stratosphere. It uses climate model simulations to show that there could be an additional benefit in doing so as the models indicate an enhanced productivity of the biosphere, and thus a greater carbon sink. This is a significant insight that could stimulate more debate and analyses with regard to the pros and cons of geoengineering.

Understanding impacts of climate extremes holds enormous societal and economic value, and is a key step towards climate resilience and adaptation. Notwithstanding recent advances in the field, there are unique challenges which hinder progress beyond the current state-of-the-art. This paper outlines three key challenges and identifies opportunities to address them, providing a pathway to advance interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral research on societal impacts of climate extremes.

The authors identify a close relationship between the Earth's energy imbalance and equilibrium climate sensitivity, enabling to constrain the sensitivity based on the observed energy imbalance magnitude. Their results indicate that models with moderate equilibrium climate sensitivity agree best with the observed energy imbalance.

Broadly, there are two schools of thought with regards to the relationship between orbital cycles and Ice Ages: either the orbital cycles directly force the Ice Ages or the Ice Ages are an oscillation within the climate system that is phase-locked to the orbital cycles. Both of these schools of thought implicitly assume that the orbital forcing makes the climate system "forget" its initial state. Here, Verbitsky & Volobuev perform idealized ice-sheet simulations and show that the system doesn't "forget" its initial state. Furthermore, this system exhibits spontaneous periodicity changes. The authors argue that this behaviour depends on the memory duration of the climate system. Therefore, this work opens an important avenue to be addressed by future research, focusing on the length of the memory of the climate system.