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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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14 Feb 2020
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020 | 6,215 views
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17 Aug 2020
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020 | 5,850 views
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04 May 2020
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020 | 4,364 views
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25 Feb 2020
Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020 | 3,738 views
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29 May 2020
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020 | 3,464 views
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18 Nov 2019
The economically optimal warming limit of the planet
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019 | 2,946 views
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20 Feb 2020
Biogeophysical impacts of forestation in Europe: first results from the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) regional climate model intercomparison
Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa L. Jach, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Kai Radtke, Mario Raffa, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Tölle, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, 2020 | 2,634 views
13 Nov 2019
Evaluating climate emulation: fundamental impulse testing of simple climate models
Adria K. Schwarber, Steven J. Smith, Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, and Ryan Sriver
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019, 2019 | 2,586 views
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21 Apr 2020
ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements
Seaver Wang and Zeke Hausfather
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-16,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-16, 2020
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 13 comments) | 2,552 views
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27 Aug 2020
Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation
Mohammad Shamsudduha and Richard G. Taylor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020, 2020 | 2,296 views
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07 Nov 2019
Meeting climate targets by direct CO2 injections: what price would the ocean have to pay?
Fabian Reith, Wolfgang Koeve, David P. Keller, Julia Getzlaff, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 711–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, 2019 | 2,271 views
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28 Apr 2020
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-23,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-23, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: closed, 4 comments) | 2,217 views
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17 Feb 2020
Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land
Lea Beusch, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020 | 2,132 views
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04 Dec 2019
Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change
Calum Brown, Bumsuk Seo, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019, 2019 | 2,130 views
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03 Aug 2020
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020 | 2,059 views
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08 Apr 2020
Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020 | 1,966 views
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17 Jan 2020
ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020 | 1,905 views
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11 Feb 2020
A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems
Matias Heino, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Christoph Müller, Toshichika Iizumi, and Matti Kummu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020 | 1,901 views
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21 Apr 2020
Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, 2020 | 1,864 views
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10 Feb 2020
Synthesis and evaluation of historical meridional heat transport from midlatitudes towards the Arctic
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, 2020 | 1,859 views
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19 Aug 2020
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020 | 1,819 views
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13 Dec 2019
Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, 2019 | 1,729 views
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30 Oct 2019
Maximum power of saline and fresh water mixing in estuaries
Zhilin Zhang and Hubert Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 667–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-667-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-667-2019, 2019 | 1,721 views
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17 Mar 2020
π-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020 | 1,718 views
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14 Feb 2020
A global semi-empirical glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data
Yu Sun and Riccardo E. M. Riva
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 129–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-129-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-129-2020, 2020 | 1,684 views
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20 Mar 2020
Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020 | 1,678 views
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23 Apr 2020
Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020 | 1,677 views
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10 Mar 2020
Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020 | 1,637 views
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14 Jul 2020
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020 | 1,632 views
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04 Aug 2020
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020 | 1,604 views
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03 Aug 2020
What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020 | 1,591 views
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27 Aug 2020
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020 | 1,586 views
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18 Feb 2020
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020 | 1,585 views
25 May 2020
Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020 | 1,551 views
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12 May 2020
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components
Anton Laakso, Peter K. Snyder, Stefan Liess, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Dylan B. Millet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020 | 1,545 views
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15 May 2020
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, 2020 | 1,508 views
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05 Nov 2019
Disequilibrium of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget caused by disturbance-induced emissions and non-CO2 carbon export flows: a global model assessment
Akihiko Ito
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 685–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, 2019 | 1,505 views
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18 Sep 2020
Reconstructing coupled time series in climate systems using three kinds of machine-learning methods
Yu Huang, Lichao Yang, and Zuntao Fu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 835–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020, 2020 | 1,503 views
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26 May 2020
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020 | 1,490 views
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01 Apr 2020
Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century
Stella Todzo, Adeline Bichet, and Arona Diedhiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 319–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020, 2020 | 1,459 views
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22 Oct 2020
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020 | 1,441 views
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28 Nov 2019
Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels
Francine Schevenhoven, Frank Selten, Alberto Carrassi, and Noel Keenlyside
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-789-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-789-2019, 2019 | 1,425 views
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17 Jan 2020
Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020 | 1,410 views
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05 Dec 2019
Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts
Sabrina Hempel, Christoph Menz, Severino Pinto, Elena Galán, David Janke, Fernando Estellés, Theresa Müschner-Siemens, Xiaoshuai Wang, Julia Heinicke, Guoqiang Zhang, Barbara Amon, Agustín del Prado, and Thomas Amon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 859–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, 2019 | 1,397 views
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10 Feb 2020
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics
Mia H. Gross, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, and Steven C. Sherwood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 97–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, 2020 | 1,394 views
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03 Apr 2020
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-18,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-18, 2020
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments) | 1,350 views
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16 Sep 2020
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, 2020 | 1,343 views
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12 Mar 2020
Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020, 2020 | 1,335 views
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26 Mar 2020
Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020, 2020 | 1,334 views
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28 Aug 2020
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020 | 1,324 views
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