30 Oct 2024
| Highlight paper
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024 | 7,327 views
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23 Apr 2025
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High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025 | 5,724 views
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28 Nov 2024
| ESD Letters
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Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming
Ilaria Quaglia and Daniele Visioni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1527–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024, 2024 | 5,584 views
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18 Oct 2024
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Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024 | 5,376 views
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19 Aug 2024
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Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024 | 5,319 views
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10 Sep 2024
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024 | 4,123 views
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07 Feb 2025
Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
Paul Pearce-Kelly, Andrew H. Altieri, John F. Bruno, Christopher E. Cornwall, Melanie McField, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Juan Rocha, Renee O. Setter, Charles Sheppard, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, and Chris Yesson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 275–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025, 2025 | 3,721 views
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07 Jan 2025
A first attempt to model global hydrology at hyper-resolution
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jannis Hoch, Bram Droppers, Joren Janzing, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 29–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, 2025 | 3,356 views
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26 Aug 2024
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Cautionary remarks on the planetary boundary visualisation
Miguel D. Mahecha, Guido Kraemer, and Fabio Crameri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1153–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024, 2024 | 2,902 views
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18 Dec 2024
AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024 | 2,900 views
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02 Aug 2024
Missing the (tipping) point: the effect of information about climate tipping points on public risk perceptions in Norway
Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024 | 2,506 views
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28 Jan 2025
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025 | 2,505 views
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06 Aug 2024
| ESD Letters
| Highlight paper
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, and Dmitry Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1015–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1015-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1015-2024, 2024 | 2,423 views
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22 Aug 2024
Consistent increase in East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China in CMIP6
Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1137–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024, 2024 | 2,347 views
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28 Mar 2025
| Highlight paper
Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025 | 2,290 views
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30 Sep 2024
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics
Liqing Peng, Justin Sheffield, Zhongwang Wei, Michael Ek, and Eric F. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1277–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1277-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1277-2024, 2024 | 2,237 views
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12 Jul 2024
AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 859–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024, 2024 | 2,168 views
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11 Jul 2024
Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6?
Mark S. Williamson, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, and Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 829–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, 2024 | 2,014 views
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30 Jul 2024
Tipping points in coupled human–environment system models: a review
Isaiah Farahbakhsh, Chris T. Bauch, and Madhur Anand
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 947–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-947-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-947-2024, 2024 | 1,979 views
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24 Jun 2024
Global cropland expansion enhances cropping potential and reduces its inequality among countries
Xiaoxuan Liu, Peng Zhu, Shu Liu, Le Yu, Yong Wang, Zhenrong Du, Dailiang Peng, Ece Aksoy, Hui Lu, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-817-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-817-2024, 2024 | 1,961 views
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30 Jul 2024
Developing the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS)
Hanne H. Christiansen, Ilkka S. O. Matero, Lisa Baddeley, Kim Holmén, Clara J. M. Hoppe, Maarten J. J. E. Loonen, Rune Storvold, Vito Vitale, Agata Zaborska, and Heikki Lihavainen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 933–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-933-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-933-2024, 2024 | 1,924 views
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26 Feb 2025
Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity
Kate Marvel and Mark Webb
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 317–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025, 2025 | 1,872 views
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03 Feb 2025
The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025 | 1,872 views
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15 Aug 2024
Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1055–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, 2024 | 1,845 views
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12 Sep 2024
| ESD Letters
Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024 | 1,778 views
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19 Jun 2024
Cross-system interactions for positive tipping cascades
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024 | 1,757 views
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15 Oct 2024
| Highlight paper
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models
Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024, 2024 | 1,725 views
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26 Feb 2025
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points
Nadia Ameli, Hugues Chenet, Max Falkenberg, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, and Francesco Lamperti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, 2025 | 1,670 views
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16 Apr 2025
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025 | 1,642 views
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25 Jul 2024
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's future
Daniel Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, and Raphaëlle D. Haywood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 929–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, 2024 | 1,639 views
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17 Jul 2024
Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model
Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-893-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-893-2024, 2024 | 1,638 views
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12 Jul 2024
ESD Ideas: Positive tipping points towards global regenerative systems
J. David Tàbara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 853–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024, 2024 | 1,631 views
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21 Jan 2025
Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025 | 1,610 views
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12 Mar 2025
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market
Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 411–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, 2025 | 1,604 views
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24 Jul 2024
| Highlight paper
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability
Raphael Grodofzig, Martin Renoult, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 913–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-913-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-913-2024, 2024 | 1,602 views
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14 Mar 2025
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025 | 1,575 views
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05 Dec 2024
Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1543–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024, 2024 | 1,565 views
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15 Jul 2024
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios
Rémy Asselot, Philip B. Holden, Frank Lunkeit, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 875–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024, 2024 | 1,562 views
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13 Mar 2025
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Joanna Raymond, Mohamed Byari, Ronja Hotz, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 423–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025, 2025 | 1,542 views
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06 Feb 2025
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025 | 1,525 views
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26 Aug 2024
Storylines of summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents–Kara seas and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risk assessment
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024 | 1,518 views
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12 Nov 2024
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024 | 1,514 views
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09 Jan 2025
Chaotic oceanic excitation of low-frequency polar motion variability
Lara Börger, Michael Schindelegger, Mengnan Zhao, Rui M. Ponte, Anno Löcher, Bernd Uebbing, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025, 2025 | 1,447 views
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23 Apr 2025
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025 | 1,442 views
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28 Nov 2024
| Highlight paper
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
Yasir Latif, Kaiyu Fan, Geli Wang, and Milan Paluš
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1509–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024, 2024 | 1,400 views
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16 Aug 2024
Regionally optimized high-resolution input datasets enhance the representation of snow cover in CLM5
Johanna Teresa Malle, Giulia Mazzotti, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Tobias Jonas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1073–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1073-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1073-2024, 2024 | 1,399 views
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06 Mar 2025
Impacts of North American forest cover changes on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation
Victoria M. Bauer, Sebastian Schemm, Raphael Portmann, Jingzhi Zhang, Gesa K. Eirund, Steven J. De Hertog, and Jan Zibell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 379–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025, 2025 | 1,369 views
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08 Nov 2024
Extrapolation is not enough: impacts of extreme land use change on wind profiles and wind energy according to regional climate models
Jan Wohland, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Marcus Breil, Olivier Asselin, and Diana Rechid
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1385–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1385-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1385-2024, 2024 | 1,354 views
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10 Dec 2024
Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Amber A. Boot, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1567–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1567-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1567-2024, 2024 | 1,334 views
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21 Jun 2024
Natural marine bromoform emissions in the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model NorESM2
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, 2024 | 1,322 views
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