03 Jun 2021
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021 | 10,019 views
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17 Aug 2020
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020 | 8,659 views
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13 Nov 2020
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020 | 6,549 views
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01 Mar 2021
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021 | 6,472 views
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14 Apr 2021
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021 | 4,348 views
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27 Aug 2020
Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation
Mohammad Shamsudduha and Richard G. Taylor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020, 2020 | 3,678 views
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22 Oct 2020
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020 | 3,363 views
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03 Aug 2020
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020 | 3,279 views
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06 Nov 2020
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020 | 3,038 views
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04 Dec 2020
Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020 | 2,958 views
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19 Aug 2020
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020 | 2,772 views
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14 Jul 2020
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020 | 2,666 views
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21 Dec 2020
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020 | 2,512 views
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11 Dec 2020
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, 2020 | 2,511 views
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04 Aug 2020
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020 | 2,506 views
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03 Aug 2020
What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020 | 2,493 views
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27 Aug 2020
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020 | 2,438 views
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21 Oct 2020
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
Kathrin Wehrli, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020 | 2,298 views
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06 Jan 2021
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021 | 2,277 views
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30 Oct 2020
How large does a large ensemble need to be?
Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 885–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020, 2020 | 2,274 views
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18 Sep 2020
Reconstructing coupled time series in climate systems using three kinds of machine-learning methods
Yu Huang, Lichao Yang, and Zuntao Fu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 835–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020, 2020 | 2,195 views
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16 Sep 2020
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, 2020 | 2,181 views
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06 Jan 2021
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021 | 2,161 views
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24 Jul 2020
Impact of environmental changes and land management practices on wheat production in India
Shilpa Gahlot, Tzu-Shun Lin, Atul K. Jain, Somnath Baidya Roy, Vinay K. Sehgal, and Rajkumar Dhakar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 641–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, 2020 | 2,069 views
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28 Aug 2020
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020 | 2,060 views
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11 Feb 2021
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021 | 1,925 views
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25 Jun 2020
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020 | 1,905 views
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10 Feb 2021
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021 | 1,851 views
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26 Feb 2021
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021 | 1,715 views
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02 Feb 2021
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021 | 1,708 views
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31 Jul 2020
Climate engineering to mitigate the projected 21st-century terrestrial drying of the Americas: a direct comparison of carbon capture and sulfur injection
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020 | 1,697 views
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03 Nov 2020
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020 | 1,690 views
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16 Dec 2020
Biases in the albedo sensitivity to deforestation in CMIP5 models and their impacts on the associated historical radiative forcing
Quentin Lejeune, Edouard L. Davin, Grégory Duveiller, Bas Crezee, Ronny Meier, Alessandro Cescatti, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, 2020 | 1,683 views
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16 Dec 2020
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020 | 1,610 views
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09 Nov 2020
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020 | 1,603 views
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07 Jan 2021
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021 | 1,595 views
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07 Dec 2020
The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020 | 1,591 views
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10 May 2021
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, 2021 | 1,585 views
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23 Nov 2020
Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020 | 1,563 views
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11 Mar 2021
The response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling under different aerosol-based radiation management geoengineering
Hanna Lee, Helene Muri, Altug Ekici, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021 | 1,549 views
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23 Feb 2021
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021 | 1,533 views
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05 May 2021
Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021 | 1,523 views
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19 Nov 2020
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, 2020 | 1,515 views
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30 Jul 2020
Mesoscale atmospheric circulation controls of local meteorological elevation gradients on Kersten Glacier near Kilimanjaro summit
Thomas Mölg, Douglas R. Hardy, Emily Collier, Elena Kropač, Christina Schmid, Nicolas J. Cullen, Georg Kaser, Rainer Prinz, and Michael Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 653–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, 2020 | 1,451 views
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19 May 2021
Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021 | 1,435 views
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03 May 2021
Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021 | 1,410 views
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16 Dec 2020
Future sea level contribution from Antarctica inferred from CMIP5 model forcing and its dependence on precipitation ansatz
Christian B. Rodehacke, Madlene Pfeiffer, Tido Semmler, Özgür Gurses, and Thomas Kleiner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1153–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1153-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1153-2020, 2020 | 1,409 views
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21 May 2021
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021 | 1,376 views
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18 Nov 2020
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020 | 1,315 views
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03 Mar 2021
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021 | 1,305 views
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