This paper shows that current climate policies risk triggering tipping points like permafrost thaw and rainforest loss. While these changes add some extra warming, human emissions remain the biggest driver. Lower emissions reduce the risk, but reaching tipping points is still possible.

This paper qualifies as an ESD letter because it presents highly relevant results of the impact on shipping emissions on temperature trends.

This paper represents a state-of-the-art review of tipping points in the physical climate system. It should be of great value and use to inform the community about the current status of research on tipping points and global climate change.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often criticised for being a "black-box" approach that provides no physical insights into the data being analysed. Very recently, a new branch of AI has emerged, called “AI-led equation discovery”. As the name suggests, it aims to reveal process equations underlying the data. This Perspective Article offers a path to align AI methods with climate research, with a focus on the use of AI-led equation discovery in support of Earth System Models.

This paper presents an important perspective on the technosphere as an intertwined component of the human-Earth system in the Anthropocene.

This study challenges the conventional wisdom that the commitment to an Earth System tipping point occurs as soon as a critical threshold is crossed. The authors show that the number of elements that would undergo tipping is severely reduced if the duration of exceedance of the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C threshold can be kept below a century. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that all tipping elements would be avoided if global warming over 1.5 °C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming is kept below 2.5 °C. Consequently, the duration of exceedance of tipping thresholds matters.

Precipitation predictability is a complex subject, given the spatiotemporal complexity of the relevant mechanisms and interactions. This paper provides a clear and relevant contribution on the topic of precipitation predictability, grounded in causal inference approaches. Although the focus of the study is regional, the methodology is flexible and can serve as working example for guiding further research on the topic in other geographical domains.

While there are many dystopian articles on post-catastrophic scenarios, rigorous, science-based analysis are limited. This paper will be a significant addition to the limited literature in this area and should have broader public and media interests.

This paper looks at constraints on future ocean heat uptake. The results suggest greater rates of 21st century ocean and atmospheric warming than previously assessed, calling into question methods using past warming to constrain future warming.

This paper provides novel results on solar radiation and solar energy conditions over Europe. It shows, for example, increasing trends in surface incoming solar radiation over large parts of Europe in spring/summer, and elucidates how these trends are driven by changes in cloudiness. The results provide valuable metrics for both the evaluation of climate models that have a dynamically integrated solar energy component and for long-term planning of solar-based renewable energy systems.

This paper examines multi-century consequences of climate change following a simulated reversal of emissions from the SSP3-7.0 (high emissions) scenario in 2100 to net zero in 2250. It demonstrates the potential for very long-term, major committed impacts of the ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

The paper is timely: there is growing interest in the development of approaches to model species distribution and the one presented in this paper is novel, simple, and efficient. The topic is of significance for a broad audience, from ecologists interested in theoretical aspects to conservationists. While the analysis has a regional scope, the approach is generalisable and may be applied elsewhere.