23 Apr 2025
| Highlight paper
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025 | 9,628 views
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30 Oct 2024
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Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024 | 8,821 views
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17 Jul 2025
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025 | 7,347 views
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28 Nov 2024
| ESD Letters
| Highlight paper
Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming
Ilaria Quaglia and Daniele Visioni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1527–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024, 2024 | 6,780 views
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07 Feb 2025
Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
Paul Pearce-Kelly, Andrew H. Altieri, John F. Bruno, Christopher E. Cornwall, Melanie McField, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Juan Rocha, Renee O. Setter, Charles Sheppard, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, and Chris Yesson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 275–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025, 2025 | 5,758 views
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08 Oct 2025
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Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025 | 4,983 views
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07 Jan 2025
A first attempt to model global hydrology at hyper-resolution
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jannis Hoch, Bram Droppers, Joren Janzing, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 29–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, 2025 | 4,086 views
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10 Jul 2025
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements
Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025 | 4,082 views
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18 Dec 2024
AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024 | 3,837 views
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28 Mar 2025
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Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025 | 3,723 views
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28 Jan 2025
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025 | 3,253 views
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11 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics
Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025 | 3,109 views
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04 Aug 2025
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025 | 3,074 views
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22 Jul 2025
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review
Florian Ulrich Jehn, John-Oliver Engler, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Magdalena Wache, Ekaterina Ilin, Laura Cook, Lalitha S. Sundaram, Frederic Hanusch, and Luke Kemp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1053–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025, 2025 | 3,053 views
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30 Jul 2025
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025 | 2,952 views
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15 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025 | 2,772 views
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15 Jul 2025
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025 | 2,590 views
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03 Feb 2025
The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025 | 2,542 views
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28 Nov 2024
| Highlight paper
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
Yasir Latif, Kaiyu Fan, Geli Wang, and Milan Paluš
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1509–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024, 2024 | 2,465 views
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26 Feb 2025
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points
Nadia Ameli, Hugues Chenet, Max Falkenberg, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, and Francesco Lamperti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, 2025 | 2,370 views
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13 Mar 2025
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Joanna Raymond, Mohamed Byari, Ronja Hotz, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 423–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025, 2025 | 2,292 views
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14 Mar 2025
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025 | 2,241 views
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26 Feb 2025
Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity
Kate Marvel and Mark Webb
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 317–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025, 2025 | 2,224 views
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06 Feb 2025
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025 | 2,178 views
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16 Apr 2025
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025 | 2,155 views
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21 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025, 2025 | 2,137 views
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21 Jan 2025
Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025 | 2,128 views
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12 Mar 2025
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market
Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 411–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, 2025 | 2,047 views
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30 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025 | 2,035 views
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11 Jun 2025
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025 | 2,028 views
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09 Jan 2025
Chaotic oceanic excitation of low-frequency polar motion variability
Lara Börger, Michael Schindelegger, Mengnan Zhao, Rui M. Ponte, Anno Löcher, Bernd Uebbing, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025, 2025 | 1,913 views
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12 Nov 2024
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024 | 1,869 views
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11 Jun 2025
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025 | 1,857 views
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11 Sep 2025
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers
Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Damián Insua-Costa, Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López, and Gonzalo Míguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1483–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025, 2025 | 1,856 views
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23 Apr 2025
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025 | 1,853 views
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04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025 | 1,838 views
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05 Dec 2024
Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1543–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024, 2024 | 1,827 views
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10 Dec 2024
Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Amber A. Boot, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1567–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1567-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1567-2024, 2024 | 1,824 views
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01 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region
James M. Ciarlo', Monique Borg Inguanez, Erika Coppola, Aaron Micallef, and David Mifsud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1391–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025, 2025 | 1,808 views
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09 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025 | 1,808 views
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21 Jan 2025
Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO2
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 151–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, 2025 | 1,800 views
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06 Mar 2025
Impacts of North American forest cover changes on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation
Victoria M. Bauer, Sebastian Schemm, Raphael Portmann, Jingzhi Zhang, Gesa K. Eirund, Steven J. De Hertog, and Jan Zibell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 379–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025, 2025 | 1,790 views
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26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025 | 1,781 views
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02 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025 | 1,744 views
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11 Aug 2025
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025 | 1,731 views
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13 Nov 2024
The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024 | 1,690 views
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28 May 2025
ESD Ideas: Near-real-time preliminary detection of carbon dioxide source and sink areas using a Laplacian filter
Yana Savytska, Viktor Smolii, and Nils Weitzel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 721–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-721-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-721-2025, 2025 | 1,679 views
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18 Feb 2025
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025 | 1,660 views
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28 Jul 2025
Nitrogen deposition and climate drive plant nitrogen uptake while soil factors drive nitrogen use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems
Helena Vallicrosa, Katrin Fleischer, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jakub Černý, Di Tian, Angeliki Kourmouli, Carolina Mayoral, Diego Grados, Mingzhen Lu, and César Terrer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025, 2025 | 1,651 views
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03 Apr 2025
Changes in extreme precipitation patterns over the Greater Antilles and teleconnection with large-scale sea surface temperature
Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 497–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, 2025 | 1,643 views
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