03 Jun 2021
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021 | 17,175 views
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01 Mar 2021
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021 | 8,912 views
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13 Nov 2020
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020 | 7,543 views
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14 Apr 2021
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021 | 5,841 views
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22 Oct 2020
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020 | 3,721 views
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06 Nov 2020
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020 | 3,479 views
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04 Dec 2020
Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020 | 3,222 views
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21 Dec 2020
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020 | 3,027 views
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06 Jan 2021
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021 | 2,907 views
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06 Jan 2021
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021 | 2,879 views
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21 Oct 2020
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
Kathrin Wehrli, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020 | 2,685 views
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11 Dec 2020
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, 2020 | 2,638 views
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11 Feb 2021
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021 | 2,484 views
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30 Oct 2020
How large does a large ensemble need to be?
Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 885–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020, 2020 | 2,471 views
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10 Feb 2021
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021 | 2,334 views
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10 May 2021
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, 2021 | 2,263 views
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26 Feb 2021
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021 | 2,252 views
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05 May 2021
Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021 | 2,247 views
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02 Feb 2021
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021 | 2,131 views
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21 May 2021
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021 | 2,048 views
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19 May 2021
Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021 | 2,046 views
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17 Aug 2021
Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021 | 1,986 views
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16 Dec 2020
Biases in the albedo sensitivity to deforestation in CMIP5 models and their impacts on the associated historical radiative forcing
Quentin Lejeune, Edouard L. Davin, Grégory Duveiller, Bas Crezee, Ronny Meier, Alessandro Cescatti, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, 2020 | 1,982 views
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23 Aug 2021
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021 | 1,938 views
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07 Dec 2020
The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020 | 1,932 views
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07 Jan 2021
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021 | 1,916 views
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23 Feb 2021
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021 | 1,902 views
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11 Mar 2021
The response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling under different aerosol-based radiation management geoengineering
Hanna Lee, Helene Muri, Altug Ekici, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021 | 1,876 views
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10 May 2021
First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021 | 1,862 views
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03 Nov 2020
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020 | 1,847 views
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03 May 2021
Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021 | 1,822 views
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28 Jul 2021
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 819–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, 2021 | 1,811 views
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09 Nov 2020
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020 | 1,787 views
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16 Dec 2020
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020 | 1,759 views
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30 Mar 2021
Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021 | 1,759 views
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19 Nov 2020
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, 2020 | 1,707 views
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23 Nov 2020
Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020 | 1,697 views
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04 Feb 2021
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021 | 1,697 views
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27 May 2021
Earth system economics: a biophysical approach to the human component of the Earth system
Eric D. Galbraith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, 2021 | 1,648 views
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03 Mar 2021
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021 | 1,602 views
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07 Dec 2020
Water transport among the world ocean basins within the water cycle
David García-García, Isabel Vigo, and Mario Trottini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, 2020 | 1,568 views
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12 Jan 2021
ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021 | 1,560 views
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16 Apr 2021
Identification of a 50-year scaling relating current global energy demands to historically cumulative economic production
Timothy J. Garrett, Matheus R. Grasselli, and Stephen Keen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-21,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-21, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 9 comments) | 1,559 views
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16 Dec 2020
Future sea level contribution from Antarctica inferred from CMIP5 model forcing and its dependence on precipitation ansatz
Christian B. Rodehacke, Madlene Pfeiffer, Tido Semmler, Özgür Gurses, and Thomas Kleiner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1153–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1153-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1153-2020, 2020 | 1,556 views
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30 Jun 2021
Comparison of uncertainties in land-use change fluxes from bookkeeping model parameterisation
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021 | 1,539 views
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19 Feb 2021
Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021 | 1,529 views
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02 Feb 2021
Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators
Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, 2021 | 1,527 views
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08 Apr 2021
Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021 | 1,506 views
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26 Apr 2021
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study
Pablo Ortega, Jon I. Robson, Matthew Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Adam Blaker, Agathe Germe, Jöel J.-M. Hirschi, Bablu Sinha, Leon Hermanson, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, 2021 | 1,484 views
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30 Jun 2021
Bookkeeping estimates of the net land-use change flux – a sensitivity study with the CMIP6 land-use dataset
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021 | 1,480 views
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