17 Aug 2020
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020 | 7,857 views
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13 Nov 2020
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020 | 5,597 views
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04 May 2020
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020 | 5,152 views
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29 May 2020
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020 | 4,725 views
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01 Mar 2021
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021 | 3,508 views
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27 Aug 2020
Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation
Mohammad Shamsudduha and Richard G. Taylor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020, 2020 | 3,194 views
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22 Oct 2020
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020 | 2,877 views
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03 Aug 2020
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020 | 2,838 views
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06 Nov 2020
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020 | 2,592 views
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08 Apr 2020
Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020 | 2,559 views
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19 Aug 2020
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020 | 2,481 views
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14 Jul 2020
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020 | 2,357 views
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11 Dec 2020
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, 2020 | 2,324 views
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21 Apr 2020
Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, 2020 | 2,257 views
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04 Aug 2020
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020 | 2,255 views
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27 Aug 2020
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020 | 2,216 views
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03 Aug 2020
What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020 | 2,188 views
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23 Apr 2020
Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020 | 2,182 views
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25 May 2020
Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020 | 2,166 views
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20 Mar 2020
Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020 | 2,100 views
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18 Sep 2020
Reconstructing coupled time series in climate systems using three kinds of machine-learning methods
Yu Huang, Lichao Yang, and Zuntao Fu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 835–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020, 2020 | 2,015 views
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30 Oct 2020
How large does a large ensemble need to be?
Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 885–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020, 2020 | 2,012 views
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15 May 2020
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, 2020 | 1,971 views
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04 Dec 2020
Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020 | 1,969 views
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17 Mar 2020
π-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020 | 1,967 views
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12 May 2020
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components
Anton Laakso, Peter K. Snyder, Stefan Liess, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Dylan B. Millet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020 | 1,966 views
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26 May 2020
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020 | 1,966 views
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10 Mar 2020
Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020 | 1,920 views
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16 Sep 2020
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, 2020 | 1,909 views
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28 Aug 2020
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020 | 1,878 views
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15 Jun 2020
Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020 | 1,864 views
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21 Oct 2020
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
Kathrin Wehrli, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020 | 1,844 views
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21 Dec 2020
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020 | 1,829 views
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24 Jul 2020
Impact of environmental changes and land management practices on wheat production in India
Shilpa Gahlot, Tzu-Shun Lin, Atul K. Jain, Somnath Baidya Roy, Vinay K. Sehgal, and Rajkumar Dhakar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 641–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, 2020 | 1,817 views
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06 Jan 2021
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021 | 1,774 views
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29 May 2020
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020 | 1,766 views
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03 Apr 2020
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-18,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-18, 2020
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments) | 1,760 views
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01 Apr 2020
Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century
Stella Todzo, Adeline Bichet, and Arona Diedhiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 319–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020, 2020 | 1,753 views
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06 Jan 2021
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021 | 1,721 views
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12 Mar 2020
Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020, 2020 | 1,717 views
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26 Mar 2020
Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020, 2020 | 1,671 views
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05 Jun 2020
On the interconnections among major climate modes and their common driving factors
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, Jun Wang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 525–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, 2020 | 1,637 views
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25 Jun 2020
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020 | 1,630 views
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03 Nov 2020
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020 | 1,533 views
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31 Jul 2020
Climate engineering to mitigate the projected 21st-century terrestrial drying of the Americas: a direct comparison of carbon capture and sulfur injection
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020 | 1,497 views
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29 Apr 2020
The impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020 | 1,493 views
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09 Mar 2020
Impacts of land use change and elevated CO2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China
Binghao Jia, Xin Luo, Ximing Cai, Atul Jain, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Zhenghui Xie, Ning Zeng, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, Akihiko Ito, Yaxing Wei, Hanqin Tian, Benjamin Poulter, Dan Hayes, and Kevin Schaefer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, 2020 | 1,469 views
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16 Dec 2020
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020 | 1,459 views
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09 Nov 2020
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020 | 1,425 views
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07 Jan 2021
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021 | 1,411 views
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