Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
Research article
24 Apr 2018
Research article |  | 24 Apr 2018

Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann

Related authors

Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118,,, 2023
Short summary
Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the subsurface thermal regime in Central Spain
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130,,, 2021
Short summary
Studying the large-scale effect of leaf thermoregulation using an Earth system model
Marvin Heidkamp, Felix Ament, Philipp de Vrese, and Andreas Chlond
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,,, 2020
Publication in ESD not foreseen
Short summary

Related subject area

Management of the Earth system: sustainability science
Governing change: a dynamical systems approach to understanding the stability of environmental governance
Nusrat Molla, John DeIonno, Thilo Gross, and Jonathan Herman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1677–1688,,, 2022
Short summary
Disentangling the climate divide with emotional patterns: a network-based mindset reconstruction approach
Roger Cremades and Massimo Stella
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1473–1489,,, 2022
Short summary
Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: how does the distant past determine today's global rate of energy consumption?
Timothy J. Garrett, Matheus R. Grasselli, and Stephen Keen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1021–1028,,, 2022
Short summary
Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau
Bojie Fu, Xutong Wu, Zhuangzhuang Wang, Xilin Wu, and Shuai Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 795–808,,, 2022
Short summary
Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation
Mohammad Shamsudduha and Richard G. Taylor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 755–774,,, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Ainsworth, E. A. and McGrath, J. M.: Direct Effects of Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Ozone on Crop Yields, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 109–130,, 2010. a
Ainsworth, E. A. and Rogers, A.: The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising [CO2]: mechanisms and environmental interactions, Plant Cell Environ., 30, 258–270,, 2007. a
Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Ort, D. R., and Long, S. P.: FACE-ing the facts: inconsistencies and interdependence among field, chamber and modeling studies of elevated [CO2] impacts on crop yield and food supply, New Phytol., 179, 5–9,, 2008. a
Alkama, R. and Cescatti, A.: Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover, Science, 351, 600–604, 2016. a
Amthor, J. S.: Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration, Field Crop. Res., 73, 1–34,, 2001. a, b
Short summary
The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate. Using an Earth system model, we investigate the climate–agriculture interactions resulting from a maximization of the global cropland area during the 21st century. We find that the potential food supply can be increased substantially, but guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult.
Final-revised paper