Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-393-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-393-2018
Research article
 | 
24 Apr 2018
Research article |  | 24 Apr 2018

Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann

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Cited articles

Ainsworth, E. A. and McGrath, J. M.: Direct Effects of Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Ozone on Crop Yields, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 109–130, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2953-9_7, 2010. a
Ainsworth, E. A. and Rogers, A.: The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising [CO2]: mechanisms and environmental interactions, Plant Cell Environ., 30, 258–270, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2007.01641.x, 2007. a
Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Ort, D. R., and Long, S. P.: FACE-ing the facts: inconsistencies and interdependence among field, chamber and modeling studies of elevated [CO2] impacts on crop yield and food supply, New Phytol., 179, 5–9, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02500.x, 2008. a
Alkama, R. and Cescatti, A.: Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover, Science, 351, 600–604, 2016. a
Amthor, J. S.: Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration, Field Crop. Res., 73, 1–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4290(01)00179-4, 2001. a, b
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Short summary
The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate. Using an Earth system model, we investigate the climate–agriculture interactions resulting from a maximization of the global cropland area during the 21st century. We find that the potential food supply can be increased substantially, but guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult.
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