Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-393-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-393-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 24 Apr 2018
| 24 Apr 2018
Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios
Philipp de Vrese
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Tobias Stacke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Stefan Hagemann
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
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Cited
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modelling climate change impacts on crop production in food insecure regions: The case of Niger J. Alvar-Beltrán et al. 10.1016/j.eja.2022.126667
- Simulating the Impact of Global Reservoir Expansion on the Present‐Day Climate I. Vanderkelen et al. 10.1029/2020JD034485
- Evaluating Public Attitudes and Farmers’ Beliefs towards Climate Change Adaptation: Awareness, Perception, and Populism at European Level S. Ricart et al. 10.3390/land8010004
- A review on irrigation parameterizations in Earth system models A. Valmassoi & J. Keller 10.3389/frwa.2022.906664
- Irrigation and hydrometeorological extremes P. de Vrese & T. Stacke 10.1007/s00382-020-05337-9
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage J. González-Rouco et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0024.1
- Predicting Nutrient Incontinence in the Anthropocene at Watershed Scales R. Frei et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00200
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response N. Steinert et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach A. Chandio et al. 10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2020-0111
- Effects of Nitrogen fertilisation and stocking rates on soil erosion and water infiltration in a Brazilian Cerrado farm J. Sone et al. 10.1016/j.agee.2020.107159
- Soil physical properties and interrill erosion in agricultural production systems after 20 years of cultivation D. Pavei et al. 10.36783/18069657rbcs20210039
- Improving sustainable agriculture promotion: an explorative analysis of NRCS assistance programs and farmer perspectives C. Thompson et al. 10.1080/14735903.2022.2056997
- Examining the impact of climate change on cereal production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL modelling approach A. Singh et al. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36403
- Effects of Long-Term Crop-Livestock-Forestry Systems on Soil Erosion and Water Infiltration in a Brazilian Cerrado Site J. Sone et al. 10.3390/su11195339
- Hermetia illucens frass improves the physiological state of basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) and its nutritional value under drought D. Radzikowska-Kujawska et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0280037
- The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050 A. Pastor et al. 10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1
- Isolating the effects of land use land cover change and inter-decadal climate variations on the water and energy cycles over India, 1981–2010 N. Ghodichore et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128267
- Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon A. Bayer et al. 10.1073/pnas.2220371120
- Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review R. Saxena et al. 10.3390/su10072228
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modelling climate change impacts on crop production in food insecure regions: The case of Niger J. Alvar-Beltrán et al. 10.1016/j.eja.2022.126667
- Simulating the Impact of Global Reservoir Expansion on the Present‐Day Climate I. Vanderkelen et al. 10.1029/2020JD034485
- Evaluating Public Attitudes and Farmers’ Beliefs towards Climate Change Adaptation: Awareness, Perception, and Populism at European Level S. Ricart et al. 10.3390/land8010004
- A review on irrigation parameterizations in Earth system models A. Valmassoi & J. Keller 10.3389/frwa.2022.906664
- Irrigation and hydrometeorological extremes P. de Vrese & T. Stacke 10.1007/s00382-020-05337-9
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage J. González-Rouco et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0024.1
- Predicting Nutrient Incontinence in the Anthropocene at Watershed Scales R. Frei et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00200
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response N. Steinert et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach A. Chandio et al. 10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2020-0111
- Effects of Nitrogen fertilisation and stocking rates on soil erosion and water infiltration in a Brazilian Cerrado farm J. Sone et al. 10.1016/j.agee.2020.107159
- Soil physical properties and interrill erosion in agricultural production systems after 20 years of cultivation D. Pavei et al. 10.36783/18069657rbcs20210039
- Improving sustainable agriculture promotion: an explorative analysis of NRCS assistance programs and farmer perspectives C. Thompson et al. 10.1080/14735903.2022.2056997
- Examining the impact of climate change on cereal production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL modelling approach A. Singh et al. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36403
- Effects of Long-Term Crop-Livestock-Forestry Systems on Soil Erosion and Water Infiltration in a Brazilian Cerrado Site J. Sone et al. 10.3390/su11195339
- Hermetia illucens frass improves the physiological state of basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) and its nutritional value under drought D. Radzikowska-Kujawska et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0280037
- The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050 A. Pastor et al. 10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1
- Isolating the effects of land use land cover change and inter-decadal climate variations on the water and energy cycles over India, 1981–2010 N. Ghodichore et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128267
- Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon A. Bayer et al. 10.1073/pnas.2220371120
- Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review R. Saxena et al. 10.3390/su10072228
Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
Short summary
The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate. Using an Earth system model, we investigate the climate–agriculture interactions resulting from a maximization of the global cropland area during the 21st century. We find that the potential food supply can be increased substantially, but guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult.
The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity...
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