Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026
Research article
 | 
15 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 15 Apr 2026

A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements

Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Cited articles

Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306, 2012. a
Bara, J., Santos, F. P., and Turrini, P.: The impact of mobility costs on cooperation and welfare in spatial social dilemmas, Sci. Rep., 14, 10572, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-60806-z, 2024. a
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Lade, S. J., and Kurths, J.: When Optimization for Governing Human-Environment Tipping Elements Is Neither Sustainable nor Safe, Nat. Commun., 9, 2354, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z, 2018. a, b
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., and Kurths, J.: Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games, Phys. Rev. E, 99, 043305, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305, 2019. a
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Short summary
When one tipping element collapses the likelihood of another collapsing may be significantly affected. Using our simplified network model, we find that on the whole these interactions destabilise the Earth system, both in the short term and at equilibrium, though the effects are most noticeable after the year 2100. We find that to minimise tipping risks, it is essential to keep temperatures as close as possible to 1.5 °C in the short term and below 1 °C in the longer run.
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