Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
 | 
15 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 15 Apr 2026

A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements

Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss

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Short summary
When one tipping element collapses the likelihood of another collapsing may be significantly affected. Using our simplified network model, we find that on the whole these interactions destabilise the Earth system, both in the short term and at equilibrium, though the effects are most noticeable after the year 2100. We find that to minimise tipping risks, it is essential to keep temperatures as close as possible to 1.5 °C in the short term and below 1 °C in the longer run.
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Earth resilience in the Anthropocene
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