Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
 | 
16 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 16 Mar 2026

Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections

Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li

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Short summary
In this study, we find that global freshwater storage on land (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) will likely decrease much more than raw models suggest – about 83 millimeters less water by 2100. This means that earlier studies may have overestimated future water availability. When we correct the models using observations, the results consistently show significant declines in freshwater, which could worsen water stress worldwide if demand continues to grow.
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