Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 04 Mar 2026
| 04 Mar 2026
Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles
Arthur Coquereau
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Univ Brest CNRS IRD Ifremer, Brest, France
Florian Sévellec
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Univ Brest CNRS IRD Ifremer, Brest, France
Thierry Huck
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Univ Brest CNRS IRD Ifremer, Brest, France
Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Marine Systems Modelling, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Quentin Jamet
SHOM, Service Hydrologique et Océanographique de la Marine, Brest, France
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Short summary
Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains a major source of uncertainty.
Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of...
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