Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
Research article
 | 
04 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 04 Mar 2026

Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles

Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-17', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jan 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Arthur Coquereau, 13 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-17', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Feb 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (17 Apr 2025) by Gerrit Lohmann
AR by Arthur Coquereau on behalf of the Authors (05 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Aug 2025) by Gabriele Messori
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (21 Aug 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (22 Sep 2025)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (25 Sep 2025) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Arthur Coquereau on behalf of the Authors (05 Dec 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Dec 2025) by Gabriele Messori
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (05 Jan 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (04 Feb 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (07 Feb 2026) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Arthur Coquereau on behalf of the Authors (19 Feb 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (23 Feb 2026) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Arthur Coquereau on behalf of the Authors (25 Feb 2026)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains a major source of uncertainty.
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