Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
 | 
04 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 04 Mar 2026

Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles

Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet

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Short summary
Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains a major source of uncertainty.
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