Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
 | 
04 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 04 Mar 2026

Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles

Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet

Viewed

Total article views: 5,107 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
3,998 985 124 5,107 155 190
  • HTML: 3,998
  • PDF: 985
  • XML: 124
  • Total: 5,107
  • BibTeX: 155
  • EndNote: 190
Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Jan 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Jan 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 5,107 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 4,943 with geography defined and 164 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved (final revised paper)

Latest update: 21 Aug 2026
Download
Short summary
Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains a major source of uncertainty.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint