Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1589-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1589-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Research article
 | 
28 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 28 Oct 2026

On combining climate models into weighted ensembles

Britta Grusdt, Mahé Perrette, and Alexander Robinson

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Short summary
We provide practical guidelines for producing weighted ensembles of climate models. We distinguish between two approaches, the individual- and the ensemble performance weighting approach, and formulate both in probabilistic terms, making the underlying assumptions transparent. Using constructed examples, we show the advantage of the ensemble weighting approach to account for model co-dependencies and examine how methodological choices affect the climate projections of the weighted ensemble.
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