Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1589-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1589-2026
Research article
 | 
28 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 28 Oct 2026

On combining climate models into weighted ensembles

Britta Grusdt, Mahé Perrette, and Alexander Robinson

Model code and software

WeightedEnsembles Britta Grusdt https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23334598

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Short summary
We provide practical guidelines for producing weighted ensembles of climate models. We distinguish between two approaches, the individual- and the ensemble performance weighting approach, and formulate both in probabilistic terms, making the underlying assumptions transparent. Using constructed examples, we show the advantage of the ensemble weighting approach to account for model co-dependencies and examine how methodological choices affect the climate projections of the weighted ensemble.
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