Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1341-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1341-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
25 Sep 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 25 Sep 2026

Assessing Earth system responses in mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal

Jörg Schwinger, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Raffaele Bernardello, Momme Butenschön, Timothée Bourgeois, Matthew J. Gidden, Shraddha Gupta, Hanna Lee, Nadine Mengis, Yiannis Moustakis, Helene Muri, Lars Nieradzik, Daniele Peano, Julia Pongratz, Pascal Sauer, Etienne Tourigny, and David Wårlind

Data sets

NorESM2 source code as used for CMIP6 simulations (includes additional experimental setups, extended model documentation, automated inputdata download, restructuring of BLOM/iHAMOCC input data) (2.0.2) Ø. Seland et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3905091

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE esm-500os-actoae scenario (ensemble member 1) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.b41xatzp

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE esm-500os-actoae scenario (ensemble member 2) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.iq1cflvg

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE esm-500os-actoae scenario (ensemble member 3) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.f832rbwo

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE esm-500os-nooae scenario (ensemble member 1) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.q7qi71nx

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE esm-500os-nooae scenario (ensemble member 2) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.dtyyrpf1

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE esm-500os-nooae scenario (ensemble member 3) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.jlvs4hdc

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE 500os-nooae-esmco2 scenario (ensemble member 1) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.mm565mow

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE 500os-nooae-esmco2 scenario (ensemble member 1) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.cv81aphh

NorESM2-LM simulation of the RESCUE 500os-nooae-esmco2 scenario (ensemble member 3) J. Schwinger and T. Bourgeois https://doi.org/10.11582/2026.hw1zdkxr

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Editorial statement
This paper is a very timely contribution that can be expected to be of broad interest to the Earth System Modelling and Integrated Assessment Modelling community. It deals with the topic of how to accurately assess the Earth system responses to Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods. It proposes approaches to create a no-CDR baseline against which the Earth system effects of activity-driven CDR can be evaluated, as well as a framework to quantify the direct effect of CDR on atmospheric carbon dioxide as well as the resulting feedbacks. Such a framework is essential for assessing the efficiency of activity-driven CDR in emissions-driven simulations, such as those proposed for CMIP7.
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Short summary
Earth system models can simulate CO2 removal by representing the activity that draws down atmospheric CO2, e.g. growing bioenergy crops for energy production with carbon capture and storage or enhancing the oceans’ alkalinity. We describe a simulation framework, spanning the modeling chain from integrated assessment to Earth system models, that allows separating the intrinsic efficiency of CO2 removal and the overall atmospheric CO2 reduction, the latter being affected by Earth system feedbacks.
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