Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1007-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1007-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Research article
 | 
22 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 22 Jul 2026

Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Ned C. Williams, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Joaquim G. Pinto

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Short summary
Decadal forecasts use models to predict near-term natural and human-induced climate changes. Large scale pressure patterns affect surface impacts, but in summer they are hard to predict. North Atlantic surface temperatures are known to influence these patterns in summer. We find that a large set of retrospective decadal forecasts can predict this ocean-atmosphere interaction but also underestimates it, consistent with other predictable North Atlantic pressure patterns in climate forecasts.
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