Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Williams, Ned C.; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

doi:10.5194/esd-17-1007-2026

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1007-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1007-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

Research article

|

22 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 22 Jul 2026

Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Ned C. Williams, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1007-2026-supplement

Data sets

MPI-ESM-LR_1.2.01p5 decadal predictions localEnKF: monthly mean values S. Brune et al. https://hdl.handle.net/21.14106/098c6104e3d89943248aa61ff69db972adb3baf6

MPI-ESM-LR_1.2.01p5 decadal predictions localEnKF large ensemble: monthly mean values members 17 to 80 S. Brune et al. https://hdl.handle.net/21.14106/c69ceecb1584cc50247ae6e492fb1ef33e65ac37

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573

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Short summary

Decadal forecasts use models to predict near-term natural and human-induced climate changes. Large scale pressure patterns affect surface impacts, but in summer they are hard to predict. North Atlantic surface temperatures are known to influence these patterns in summer. We find that a large set of retrospective decadal forecasts can predict this ocean-atmosphere interaction but also underestimates it, consistent with other predictable North Atlantic pressure patterns in climate forecasts.