Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025
Research article
 | 
21 May 2025
Research article |  | 21 May 2025

Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics

Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires

Related authors

Hourly precipitation fields at 1 km resolution over Belgium from 1940 to 2016 based on the analog technique
Elke Debrie, Jonathan Demaeyer, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-149,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-149, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Finite-size local dimension as a tool for extracting geometrical properties of attractors of dynamical systems
Martin Bonte and Stéphane Vannitsem
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3915,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3915, 2024
Short summary
Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model
Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-893-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-893-2024, 2024
Short summary
A comparison of two causal methods in the context of climate analyses
David Docquier, Giorgia Di Capua, Reik V. Donner, Carlos A. L. Pires, Amélie Simon, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Quantitative rainfall analysis of the 2021 mid-July flood event in Belgium
Michel Journée, Edouard Goudenhoofdt, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Laurent Delobbe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3169–3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3169-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Topics: Climate dynamics and variability | Interactions: Ocean/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Other methods
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
Yasir Latif, Kaiyu Fan, Geli Wang, and Milan Paluš
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1509–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Unveiling amplified isolation in climate networks due to global warming
Yifan Cheng, Panjie Qiao, Meiyi Hou, Yuan Chen, Wenqi Liu, and Yongwen Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 779–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-779-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-779-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Alexander, M. A., Bladé, I., Newman, M., Lanzante, J. R., Lau, N.-C., and Scott, J. D.: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans, J. Climate, 15, 2205–2231, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Ambaum, M. H. P. and Hoskins, B. J.: The NAO Troposphere–Stratosphere Connection, J. Climate, 15, 1969–1978, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1969:TNTSC>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Bach, E., Motesharrei, S., Kalnay, E., and Ruiz-Barradas, A.: Local atmosphere-ocean predictability: Dynamical origins, lead times, and seasonality, J. Climate, 32, 7507–7519, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0817.1, 2019. a
Baldwin, M. P., Gray, L. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Hamilton, K., Haynes, P. H., Randel, W. J., Holton, J. R., Alexander, M. J., Hirota, I., Horinouchi, T., Jones, D. B. A., Kinnersley, J. S., Marquardt, C., Sato, K., and Takahashi, M.: The quasi-biennial oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 39, 179–229, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999RG000073, 2001. a
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a, b
Download
Short summary
Large-scale modes of variability are present in the climate system. These modes are known to have influences on each other but are usually viewed as linear influences. The nonlinear connections among a set of key climate indices are explored here using tools from information theory, which allow us to characterize the causality between indices. It was found that quadratic nonlinear dependencies between climate indices are present at low frequencies, reflecting the complex nature of their dynamics.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint