Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
Research article
 | 
06 May 2025
Research article |  | 06 May 2025

Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm

Jerome Sauer, François Massonnet, Giuseppe Zappa, and Francesco Ragone

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Short summary
An obstacle in studying climate extremes is the lack of robust statistics. We use a rare event algorithm to gather robust statistics on extreme Arctic sea ice lows with probabilities below 0.1 % and to study drivers of events with amplitudes larger than observed in 2012. The work highlights that the most extreme sea ice reductions result from the combined effects of preconditioning and weather variability, emphasizing the need for thoughtful ensemble design when turning to real applications.
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Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design,...
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