Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
23 Apr 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 23 Apr 2025

High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025-supplement

Data sets

Model Output and Parameters (Version 3) Jakob Deutloff https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10820467

Model code and software

Model Code and Evaluation Scripts (Version 1.3) Jakob Deutloff https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10820599

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This paper shows that current climate policies risk triggering tipping points like permafrost thaw and rainforest loss. While these changes add some extra warming, human emissions remain the biggest driver. Lower emissions reduce the risk, but reaching tipping points is still possible.
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Short summary
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.
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Tipping points in the Anthropocene
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