Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
Research article
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23 Apr 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 23 Apr 2025

High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Cited articles

Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science (New York, N.Y.), 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa, ab, ac, ad
Belgorodski, N., Greiner, M., Tolksdorf, K., Schueller, K., Flor, M., and Göhring, L.: rriskDistributions, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rriskDistributions (last access: 1 June 2023), 2017. a
Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., and Boers, N.: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 622, 528–536, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9, 2023. a
Boers, N.: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 680–688, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4, 2021. a
Boers, N. and Rypdal, M.: Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118, 2021. a
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This paper shows that current climate policies risk triggering tipping points like permafrost thaw and rainforest loss. While these changes add some extra warming, human emissions remain the biggest driver. Lower emissions reduce the risk, but reaching tipping points is still possible.
Short summary
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.
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