Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Jakob Deutloff
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Meteorological Institute, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM), Hamburg, Germany
Hermann Held
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Timothy M. Lenton
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Addressing climate change challenges through ergonomics and human factors A. Thatcher & T. Alexander https://doi.org/10.1007/s41449-026-00537-1
- A criterion for safe overshoot in coupled tipping systems S. Sinet et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0332433
- Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7586
- Tipping points do not make 1.5 °C a physical climate limit D. Armstrong McKay & S. Constantino https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9200
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Communication, Citizen Participation, and Climate Activism: A Bibliometric and Narrative Review of Scientific Research (2014–2024) S. López Gómez et al. https://doi.org/10.5294/pacla.2026.29.s2.1
- Towards a Philosophy of Metacrisology J. Bradley & V. Rivas https://doi.org/10.1017/aee.2026.10143
- Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73612-0
- Stable decisions in unstable climates: Designing robust adaptive pathways for transition to a circular water economy in water-stressed cities A. Najafpour et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2026.107739
- Time Left to Critical Climate Feedback/Loops: Annual Solar Geoengineering-PLUS, Pathways to Planetary Self-Cooling A. Feinberg https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020037
- Multi-objective dynamic optimization of urban water resources in arid regions: Identifying robust efficiency-driven pathways under climate and policy environments C. Pan & X. Yuan https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115370
- A framework for assessing global health impacts of polar change: An urgent call for interdisciplinary research N. Naik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-025-02255-0
- The Calculation Debate in a New Century: A Conversation between an Austrian School Economist and a Socialist Philosopher T. Truitt & L. Busk https://doi.org/10.55533/2765-8414.1176
- The uncertainty premium of climate tipping points A. Titton https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103398
- Stratospheric aerosol injection does not cause stronger Asian monsoon drying than greenhouse gas mitigation C. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2282
- Protected and conversed areas in a changing world: key themes for a global response M. Rao et al. https://doi.org/10.2305/MXTQ4400
- Towards Oblique Engagements With ‘Tipping Points’: A Critical Geography for Redirecting Debates R. Squire et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.70086
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Addressing climate change challenges through ergonomics and human factors A. Thatcher & T. Alexander https://doi.org/10.1007/s41449-026-00537-1
- A criterion for safe overshoot in coupled tipping systems S. Sinet et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0332433
- Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7586
- Tipping points do not make 1.5 °C a physical climate limit D. Armstrong McKay & S. Constantino https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9200
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Communication, Citizen Participation, and Climate Activism: A Bibliometric and Narrative Review of Scientific Research (2014–2024) S. López Gómez et al. https://doi.org/10.5294/pacla.2026.29.s2.1
- Towards a Philosophy of Metacrisology J. Bradley & V. Rivas https://doi.org/10.1017/aee.2026.10143
- Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73612-0
- Stable decisions in unstable climates: Designing robust adaptive pathways for transition to a circular water economy in water-stressed cities A. Najafpour et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2026.107739
- Time Left to Critical Climate Feedback/Loops: Annual Solar Geoengineering-PLUS, Pathways to Planetary Self-Cooling A. Feinberg https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020037
- Multi-objective dynamic optimization of urban water resources in arid regions: Identifying robust efficiency-driven pathways under climate and policy environments C. Pan & X. Yuan https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115370
- A framework for assessing global health impacts of polar change: An urgent call for interdisciplinary research N. Naik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-025-02255-0
- The Calculation Debate in a New Century: A Conversation between an Austrian School Economist and a Socialist Philosopher T. Truitt & L. Busk https://doi.org/10.55533/2765-8414.1176
- The uncertainty premium of climate tipping points A. Titton https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103398
- Stratospheric aerosol injection does not cause stronger Asian monsoon drying than greenhouse gas mitigation C. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2282
- Protected and conversed areas in a changing world: key themes for a global response M. Rao et al. https://doi.org/10.2305/MXTQ4400
- Towards Oblique Engagements With ‘Tipping Points’: A Critical Geography for Redirecting Debates R. Squire et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.70086
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Sep 2026
Editorial statement
This paper shows that current climate policies risk triggering tipping points like permafrost thaw and rainforest loss. While these changes add some extra warming, human emissions remain the biggest driver. Lower emissions reduce the risk, but reaching tipping points is still possible.
This paper shows that current climate policies risk triggering tipping points like permafrost...
Short summary
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission...
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