Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Research article
 | 
18 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 18 Dec 2025

The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt

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Short summary
The North Atlantic subpolar gyre is a counter-clockwise flowing ocean current that is partly driven by convection. There are indications that the convection in the subpolar gyre region can stop under climate change, with potentially large consequences for the wider North Atlantic. Here, we study a simple model of the subpolar gyre and find that in the scenarios we study, convection never stops permanently. This provides useful context for interpreting more complex models and observations.
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