Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Research article
 | 
05 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 05 Dec 2025

The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US

Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou

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Short summary
Warming in the Indian Ocean during the preceding winter can cause hotter, drier U.S. summers and reduce soybean yields. Our study reveals that temperature changes in the Indian Ocean explain 16 % of variations in U.S. soybean yields. This happens because warmer ocean waters disrupt atmospheric patterns, lowering soil moisture and increasing summer heat during critical growth stages, stressing soybean plants. Understanding this link helps improve crop risk forecasts and protect food security.
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