Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Research article
 | 
20 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 20 Nov 2025

A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model

René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra

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Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Under varying freshwater flux forcing parameters or climate change, the AMOC may collapse from a relatively strong state to a substantially weaker state. It is important to understand the dynamics of the AMOC collapse in the CESM. We show that the stability of the AMOC in the CESM is controlled by only a few feedback processes.
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